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David Becker

 

Gold prices eased on Thursday as the dollar gained traction paving the way for lower gold prices. Gold prices have received no safe-haven bid as complacency has taken hold and traders have bid up stock prices. US yields rebounded, allow the dollar to gain traction as the yield differential moved in favor of the greenback. Trade negotiations continue to grab the headlines. The US negotiating group were invited to China, but the recent passage of a bill in the Senate to support demonstrators in Hong Kong, could through a monkey wrench into the negotiations.

 

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Technical Analysis

 

Gold prices eased by continues to trade sideways in a downward sloping trend channel. Volatility has nearly vanished as market complacency has set in. Prices are caught in a tight range between support near the 10-day moving average at 1,465, and the  100-day moving average at 1,481. The 10-day moving average crossed below the 100-day moving average which would show that a short-term downtrend is in place. Short term momentum has reversed and turned negative as the fast stochastic generate a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum is about to turn positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is poised to generate a crossover buy signal. This occurred as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The trajectory of the MACD histogram is flat which reflects consolidation.

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The US Senate Passes Bill Supporting Hong Kong

The Senate unanimously approved a bill on Hong Kong which was approved by the House 417-1.  President Trump with little choice but to sign it into law, as the nearly unanimous numbers are veto-proof.  The House also passed another Senate bill banning the use of policy for crowd-control.  Tensions are likely to rise, but the question is whether it will spill over into trade negotiations. So far, the way gold is reacting to the answer appears to be no.

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