Gold Prices Forecast: Decline Continues as Dollar Strengthens Ahead of GDP Data

James Hyerczyk
Published: Feb 28, 2024, 11:56 UTC

Key Points:

  • Gold prices await GDP, PCE data for directional cues.
  • Strengthening dollar ahead of economic reports pressures gold.
  • Fed's rate policy, inflation data pivotal for gold's appeal.
Gold Prices Forecast

In this article:

Market Overview

Gold prices are trading lower for a third straight session on Wednesday, influenced by the strengthening U.S. dollar and anticipation of crucial economic data. This data is key in shaping investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s potential moves on interest rates.

At 11:40 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $2027.37, down $3.08 or -0.15%.

Yield and Dollar Dynamics

Despite a marginal dip in U.S. Treasury yields, gold prices have not found supportive ground. The dollar’s rebound, with a significant gain in its latest session, has overshadowed the impact of Treasury yields, rendering gold less attractive to holders of other currencies.

Federal Reserve’s Stance

The Federal Reserve’s current approach is pivotal in this context. Governor Michelle Bowman’s recent statements underline a cautious approach towards adjusting interest rates, pointing to persistent inflation concerns. This stance suggests a maintenance of the current restrictive monetary policy, which diminishes the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

Economic Indicators and Gold Prices

The focus is now on the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a critical inflation measure for the Fed. Recent data, including unexpectedly high consumer and producer price indexes, indicate a possible delay in interest rate cuts, potentially extending to June. This scenario supports a stronger dollar, thereby exerting pressure on gold prices.

Impact of GDP Report

Today’s GDP report is also a significant factor. Its outcome could influence market perceptions of economic strength and, consequently, the Fed’s rate decisions. A robust GDP figure might bolster the dollar further, adding to the headwinds for gold.

Short-term Market Forecast

Given these factors, the short-term outlook for gold leans towards bearish. The strengthening dollar, a cautious Federal Reserve, and economic data pointing towards delayed rate cuts create an environment that is likely to limit gold’s upward potential in the near term. Central bank purchases may offer some support amid global uncertainties, but the dominant market sentiment is inclined towards stronger economic indicators, potentially pushing back the timeline for any Fed rate cuts and restraining gold prices.

Technical Analysis

Daily Gold (XAU/USD)

XAU/USD is currently trading on the weakside of the 50-day moving average at $2032.78, putting it in a bearish position. If downside pressure continues to build then look for a test of the static support at $2009.00. This is the last potential support before the main bottom at $1984.30.

Conversely, overcoming the 50-day MA will indicate the return of buyers and could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the major resistance at $2067.00.

Essentially, trader reaction to the 50-day MA will determine the direction of XAU/USD today.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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