Hang Seng Index News: Crude Rally and Trump Warning Trigger Market Volatility

Trump’s Tehran Warning Jolts Markets as Hang Seng Falters

An overnight escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict fueled demand for safe-haven assets on Wednesday, June 18. Reports of US fighter jets and military planes moving to the Middle East raised expectations of US involvement in the conflict. The move followed President Trump’s warning to Tehran to evacuate.

Fears of US involvement and potential crude oil supply disruption sent WTI crude oil prices up 5.17% to close the June 17 session at $73.455. Rising oil prices could fuel inflationary pressures, leading central banks to delay rate cuts and impacting risk sentiment.

The Hang Seng Index extended its losses on June 18, with EV, real estate, and tech stocks coming under pressure.

Investor focus will remain on the Israel-Iran war, trade developments, and stimulus cues from Beijing. These factors could dictate whether the Hang Seng Index drops below 23,500 or retargets 24,000.

Hang Seng Index Slides as Middle East Tensions Heat Up

US equity markets trended lower on June 17, with the Nasdaq Composite Index falling 0.91%. An escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict impacted risk assets. The Hang Seng Index slid 1.2% to 23,693 in early trading on June 18. Mainland China’s markets also posted early losses, with the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index dropping 0.32% and 0.46%, respectively.

EV and Tech Stocks Stumble

The escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict and concerns about crude oil supply disruption impacted demand for EV, real estate, and tech stocks. The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index declined 2.27%. Tech giants Alibaba (09988) and Baidu (09888) dropped 2.61% and 1.70%, respectively, leaving the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.46%.

EV stocks also moved lower, with BYD (01211) falling 0.39% while Li Auto (02015) tumbled 4.7%.

Iran-Israel War: US Jets Fuel Fears of Engagement

News of the US deploying fighter jets to the Middle East on June 17 raised concerns about US involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict. Overnight, President Trump called for Iran’s unconditional surrender while denying attempts to reach out to Iran for trade talks. Trump remarked:

“I have not reached out to Iran for ‘Peace Talks’ in any way, shape, or form. This is just more HIGHLY FABRICATED, FAKE NEWS! If they want to talk, they know how to reach me. They should have taken the deal that was on the table – Would have saved a lot of lives!!!”

US involvement could lead to a regime change, potentially destabilizing the region further. According to CN Wire:

“US officials signaled that the next 24 to 48 hours would be critical in determining whether a diplomatic solution with Iran is possible or if Trump might resort to military action instead.”

Key Levels: 23,500 Support or 24,000 Breakout?

On June 18, the Hang Seng Index dropped back to its mid-May to early June congestion zone, trading below 23,750. The Israel-Iran conflict and ongoing US-China trade concerns remained headwinds.

A de-escalation in the Middle East could support a move toward 24,000, potentially paving the way to retesting the June 11 high of 24,439. On the other hand, US involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict could send the index toward 23,500. A sustained fall below 23,500 may expose the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Any stimulus moves from Beijing would likely accelerate a move toward 24,000.

Hang Seng Technical Outlook

• Resistance: 24,000, then 24,439.
• Support: 23,500, then the 50-day EMA at 23,229 and 23,000.
• Short-term Bias: Bullish, hinged on trade developments, Middle East news, and stimulus chatter.

Forecast Summary: Will Iran Concede or Will 23,500 Break First?

The Hang Seng Index returned to its May-June congestion zone. Market jitters about potential US involvement and regional stability remain headwinds. A ceasefire and progress toward a US-Iran nuclear deal would lift risk sentiment, boosting demand for Hong Kong and Mainland China stocks. In the meantime, resistance at 24,000 may cap gains without positive news.

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