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Gold Prices Forecast: XAU/USD Path Influenced by Dollar, Yields

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Nov 20, 2023, 07:52 GMT+00:00

Gold market speculates on XAU/USD future as anticipation of Fed's dovish pivot and minutes guide its short-term trajectory.

Gold Prices Forecast

In this article:

Highlights

  • Gold prices dip despite dollar’s fall.
  • Fed’s rate decisions pivotal for gold.
  • SPDR Gold Trust holdings increase.

Early Dip Despite Dollar Weakness

Gold prices (XAU/USD) are currently experiencing a slight dip, despite a weakening U.S. Dollar. As of 07:25 GMT, gold trades at $1980.58, a marginal decrease of 0.01%. December Comex Gold futures also show a downtrend at $1982.90, down by 0.09%. This movement is primarily influenced by marginally higher U.S. Treasury yields.

Federal Reserve’s Rate Hike Campaign

The gold market is reacting to the broader economic landscape, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate hike campaign. Recent economic data, indicating a slowing U.S. jobs market and lower-than-expected inflation, have led to speculation that the Fed might pause its rate increases.

The dollar’s decline to a two-month low further supports this view, with market anticipations shifting towards potential rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 30% likelihood of rate reductions starting as early as March.

Upcoming FOMC Minutes and Market Sentiment

The forthcoming release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting is keenly awaited. These minutes are expected to provide insights into the Fed’s decision-making and could potentially signal a shift towards more dovish policies. This shift, often referred to as the ‘Fed pivot,’ might favor softer U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, which could bolster gold prices and other risk assets.

Gold’s Outlook Amid Economic Indicators

Despite these developments, there’s a notable divergence between gold prices and real yields. To surpass the $2,000 per ounce mark, gold may require significantly weaker economic data. This is evident from recent trends in the job market and consumer inflation reports, which rekindled hopes of the Fed easing monetary conditions sooner than anticipated.

Investor Focus and SPDR Gold Trust Holdings

Investors are now focusing on the Fed’s minutes for further clarity on the interest rate trajectory. Meanwhile, holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed ETF, rose by 1.49% to 883.43 tonnes, indicating sustained investor interest in gold amid these changing economic conditions.

Short-Term Forecast for Gold Prices

In the short term, gold prices are likely to remain sensitive to shifts in U.S. monetary policy and economic indicators. Given the recent dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and the downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, there’s potential for a modest uptick in gold prices.

However, the extent of this increase may be tempered by the current market divergence between gold prices and real yields. Should the upcoming Federal Reserve minutes confirm a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, we could see further support for gold prices.

Overall, the short-term outlook for gold appears cautiously optimistic, with a likelihood of gradual gains, especially if the U.S. economic data continues to signal a slowdown.

Technical Analysis

Daily Gold (XAU/USD)

In the gold (XAU/USD) market, the current daily price of 1979.81 is hovering near the minor resistance level of 1987.00, suggesting a potential challenge in breaking through this threshold.

This price is above both the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, set at 1937.71 and 1928.63 respectively, indicating a general bullish trend in the medium to long-term.

However, the proximity to the main resistance at 2009.00 could limit upward movement. The support levels at 1952.21 (minor) and 1930.64 (main) provide downside protection, suggesting that the price is currently in a consolidation phase within these bounds.

The overall market sentiment leans towards bullish, but with caution, as the current price is in a delicate balance near critical resistance levels.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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