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Barry Norman

Gold, Silver & Platinum Fundamental Analysis – November 26, 2015 – Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold started giving back safe haven gains reversing the morning decline to reach 1072.50. Silver declined 79 points to trade at 14.080 while Platinum eased 55 points to 841.15. In the global market, reuters.com quoted HSBC analyst James Steel as saying that gold prices have risen as investors have sought protection from volatile financial markets in the wake of global stresses.

Despite the gains, gold wasn’t too far from a near-six-year low of1,064.95 that it hit last week on increasing expectation that the Federal Reserve would hike American rates next month for the first time in nearly a decade. Gold tended to benefit from ultra-low American rates, which lowered the cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Gold rose as much as 0.5% to $1 080.95 an ounce, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal — which is rebounding from $1 064.55 on November 18, the lowest since February 2010 — gained 0.6% on Tuesday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the shooting down of the plane by Turkish forces near their border with northeastern Syria would have “serious consequences.” Gold touched a five-year low last week as traders increased wagers US policymakers will raise borrowing costs next month. The chances of a December liftoff are now at 74% compared with 50% at the end of October, Fed-fund futures data show.

Holdings in gold-backed exchange traded products fell for a fifth day to 1 494.28 metric tons on Tuesday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Assets are at the lowest since February 2009.

Gold edged down on Wednesday on a rebounding dollar and expectations of a U.S. rate hike next month, but the downside was capped by retail demand emerging on tension between Turkey and Russia.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

2.600M

-0.200M

-0.482M

 

 

  JPY

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q3)

-3.6%

-2.1%

2.1%

   

  GBP

 

BBA Mortgage Approvals

 45.4

45.5K

44.5K

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Assist Gov. Debelle Speaks 

 

 

 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 26, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United States – Thanksgiving Day

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (MoM) (Oct)

 

-937M

-1,222M

 

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (YoY) (Oct)

 

-3,370M

-3,200M

 

 

  AUD

 

Private New Capital Expenditure

 

-3.0%

-4.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

GfK German Consumer Climate (Dec)

 

9.2

9.4

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Sek 4bn 1% Nov 2026 bond

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 17:30 US Usd 35bn 2-year FRN

Nov 25 19:00 US Usd 29bn 7-year note

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Sek 5bn 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden 1.5% Nov 2023 bond exchange, 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs

Nov 27 N/A Spain Announces details of 03 Dec

Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

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