Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 10 – 14, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 00:00 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations: Gold ended the week at 1705.35 falling from the high earlier in the week of 1724.45. On Tuesday traders reversed

Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 10 -14, 2012, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold ended the week at 1705.35 falling from the high earlier in the week of 1724.45. On Tuesday traders reversed course, feeling more optimistic after the Greece situation was resolved and positive data from China. Risk On was the theme as traders moved to high risk assets and shed safe havens. Commodity currencies and equities gained. Gold tumbled over 30 dollars in two days to settle right above the 1700 price level and has remained fairly close to that point since.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Dec 07, 2012	1705.35	1701.65	1706.75	1685.75	0.22%
Dec 06, 2012	1701.55	1693.65	1704.15	1687.35	0.45%
Dec 05, 2012	1693.85	1696.65	1708.25	1686.15	-0.17%
Dec 04, 2012	1696.75	1717.55	1718.15	1692.75	-1.22%
Dec 03, 2012	1717.75	1718.35	1724.45	1714.75	0.07%

As the week moved on and global growth and the US fiscal cliff became the focal points, traders ignored gold. Positive data continued to flow in the US and President Obama assured markets that a deal would be brokered between Democrats and Republicans ahead of the deadline. Traders seemed to ignore gold. On Friday, the US jobs data again helped support recovery and lessened the possibility for Fed intervention ahead of the FOMC two day meeting this week. Traders will be glued to Mr. Bernanke looking for any indications of what the FOMC might do and will wait for the statement due early in the week. Gold could become volatile but markets are now expecting Mr. Bernanke to put off any decision until after the first of the year and the resolution of the fiscal cliff.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 03	CNY	Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI	50.50	50.40	50.40
	CHF	Retail Sales (YoY)	2.7%	4.1%	5.4%
	CHF	SVME PMI	48.5	47.0	46.1
	EUR	Italian Manufacturing PMI	45.10	45.90	45.50
	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	44.5	44.7	44.7
	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	46.8	46.8	46.8
	EUR	Manufacturing PMI	46.2	46.2	46.2
	GBP	Manufacturing PMI	49.1	48.1	47.3
	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	49.5	51.3	51.7
Dec. 04	EUR	Spanish Unemployment Change	74.30K	90.50K	128.20K
Dec. 05	GBP	Services PMI	50.2	51.1	50.6
	EUR	Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction	5.290%		5.517%
	EUR	Retail Sales (MoM)	-1.2%	-0.1%	-0.6%
	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	118K	125K	157K
	USD	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)	2.9%	2.7%	1.9%
	USD	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)	-1.9%	-0.9%	-0.1%
	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	54.7	53.5	54.2
Dec. 06	GBP	Halifax House Price Index (MoM)	1.0%	0.2%	-0.1%
	CHF	CPI (MoM)	-0.3%	0.0%	0.1%
	GBP	Trade Balance	-9.5B	-8.8B	-8.4B
	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	3.9%	0.9%	-2.4%
	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%	0.50%
	GBP	BOE QE Total	375B	375B	375B
	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	370K	380K	395K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3205K	3275K	3305K
Dec. 07	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.8%	0.7%	-2.1%
	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	-1.3%	-0.2%	0.1%
	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY)	-3.0%	-0.6%	-3.2%
	EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	-2.6%	-0.5%	-1.3%
	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	146K	93K	138K
	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.4	34.4	34.4
	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	147K	95K	189K
	MXN	Mexican CPI (YoY)	4.18%	4.34%	4.60%
	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	74.5	82.4	82.7
	GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate	0.1%		0.1%

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1921.05 on Sep 06, 2011

Average: 1457.33 over this period

Lowest: 1044.85 on Feb 05, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 11	00:01	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-7%	-7%
	10:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	-12.0	-15.7
	13:30	USD	Trade Balance	-42.5B	-41.6B
Dec. 12	07:00	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.1%
	07:00	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	1.9%	1.9%
	07:45	EUR	French CPI (MoM)		0.1%
	09:30	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus	1.9%	1.8%
	09:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change	7.0K	10.1K
	10:00	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	-2.5%
	13:30	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	-0.5%	0.5%
	19:00	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-147.5B	-120.0B
Dec. 13	08:15	CHF	PPI (MoM)	-0.3%	-0.1%
	11:00	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-16	-21
Dec. 14	07:58	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	45.0	44.5
	08:28	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	47.2	46.8
	10:00	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.2%
	10:00	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		1.5%