Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Prices Rise to $2,342; Choppy Session in Play

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Published: May 31, 2024, 06:29 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

XAU/USD edged higher to $2,342.86, supported by a weakening US dollar and lower Treasury yields.
Anticipation grows for the US Core PCE data release, influencing potential Fed rate cuts and gold's trajectory.
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly Israel's actions, bolster gold's safe-haven appeal.

Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Prices Rise to $2,342; Choppy Session in Play

Market Overview

On Friday, the XAU/USD price edged higher, rising to $2,342.86 per ounce in Asian markets. This modest increase was influenced by a weakening US dollar and lower US Treasury yields, which enhanced gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Traders are increasingly betting on a potential Federal Reserve rate cut this year, especially following the recent disappointing US GDP data.

Inflation Data and Its Implications for Gold

Investors are particularly focused on the upcoming release of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE) for April. Expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year rise of 2.8%, this data could stiffen the dollar if figures exceed expectations, potentially capping gains in the gold market.

Geopolitical Developments and Market Response

Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, gold continues to benefit from its status as a traditional safe-haven asset.

The recent assertive military actions by Israel, establishing control over strategic border regions, have heightened geopolitical uncertainties, further supporting gold’s value.

US Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook

Recent US economic indicators have shown a mixed picture. The second estimate of the Q1 GDP confirmed a growth rate of 1.3% annually, consistent with expectations but down from the previous 1.6%.

Meanwhile, US jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 219K, suggesting potential volatility in the labor market. Comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, underscore a cautious approach towards rate cuts, emphasizing ongoing concerns about inflation and economic stability.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) sees a slight increase to $2,342.86 per ounce, with market sentiment buoyed by a dip in the US dollar and Treasury yields. Investors are now keenly anticipating the upcoming US Core PCE data, which is expected to influence Fed rate decisions and gold’s price trajectory.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold – Chart

Gold‘s (XAU/USD) is trading near $2,342.88, marking a 0.05% decrease. The pivot point for this session was identified at $2,337.55, with resistance levels observed at $2,351.05, $2,366.43, and $2,379.50, suggesting potential areas where upward momentum could face hurdles.

Conversely, support levels were established at $2,325.16, $2,304.38, and $2,285.78, indicating zones where declines might stabilize and possibly reverse. The technical indicators, including the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,354.62 and the 200-day EMA at $2,336.44, further inform the market sentiment.

The conclusion for today’s trading suggests a bullish outlook above the pivot point of $2,337.55; however, any break below this level could prompt a substantial sell-off.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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