Crude Oil Price Forecast: 88.6% Retracement Complete – Second Bottom or Breakdown?

Tuesday’s Retracement Low

Crude oil printed a fresh retracement low of $57.21 Tuesday, essentially completing the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement at $57.16 while extending the small downward-sloping trend channel. An intraday bounce followed directly off the channel’s lower boundary line.

Double-Bottom Potential

The low sits slightly above October’s $56.41 bottom and, if held, forms a potential second bottom. The April/May double-bottom precedent keeps that structure in play, though a decisive break below $57.21 would diminish the likelihood.

Five-Week Falling Channel

For roughly five weeks crude oil has weakened inside a small falling channel. The earlier sharp rally had suggested a bull-flag possibility, but the deep retracement negated the pole. Momentum and volatility have slowed, yet sellers have maintained control with the downward slope.

Downtrend Structure

The broader decline remains defined by lower swing highs and dynamic resistance at the falling 50-day average ($60.83) plus an established downtrend line. Lack of sharp selling from the most recent lower swing high at $63.03 instead produced a creeping decline—classic exhaustion behavior after reaching the 88.6% zone.

Key Support Defined

Support is now clearly marked near $57.21, just above the large multi-month zone anchored by three prior swing lows starting in April. Two separate indicators (88.6% Fib and channel boundary) aligning at essentially the same price followed by a bullish reaction today is encouraging.

Upside Confirmation Levels

Strength returns on a rally above the three-day high of $59.17. A breakout from the small falling channel triggers above the interim swing high at $60.98, simultaneously reclaiming the 50-day average. Sustained trade above that high opens the path toward the falling 200-day average at $64.44, as long as buyers can maintain control.

Outlook

The $57.21 low and 88.6% confluence mark the immediate bull-bear pivot. Holding here favors a double-bottom scenario and second-leg up potential; a decisive drop below eliminates it. Watch $60.98–$60.83 for the first meaningful upside confirmation and a shot at $64.44.

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