Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Bulls Defend Near Record Highs

Bulls Maintain Upper Hand

Gold is poised to cap the week on a bullish note, trading in the upper half of its weekly range – above $3,972, close to the long-term bull trend’s highs. A weekly close in the top third of the range – above $4,000 – would signal stronger conviction than a finish below. As of now, prices hover around this key level, consolidating within Thursday’s range after challenging resistance at the top of a rising trend channel. Yesterday’s one-day bearish signal, triggered by a drop below Wednesday’s low of $3,983, followed a record high of $4,059. Despite this, today’s tight range suggests buyers are holding ground.

Key Support Levels in Play

The 10-day moving average at $3,926, steadily rising, marks the nearest support. Given its proximity to yesterday’s low of $3,944, gold could test this level with minimal downside. This average has been reliable dynamic support since the uptrend began at the $3,311 swing low in August, anchoring the rally.

If it holds, the short-term bias remains upward. However, a decisive break below $3,926, confirmed by a daily close below, would shift focus to the 20-day moving average at $3,818, a more robust support given its longer scope. This week’s low of $3,884 sits above the 20-day line, so a breach below it would signal increased selling pressure.

Deeper Support and Correction Potential

Should the 20-day average fail, a deeper support zone between $3,707 and $3,619 comes into view, defined by prior consolidation and a measured move matching the prior 10.8% correction. At the lower end, an 18.8% decline—mirroring the last bearish pullback—would align with the 50-day moving average, expected to enter this range soon. This convergence enhances the zone’s significance as a potential floor. A drop to this level would indicate strong supply but remain within the bounds of a healthy correction in the broader uptrend.

Outlook and Key Triggers

Gold’s bullish bias holds as long as the 10-day average at $3,926 supports prices. A weekly close above $4,001 reinforces the uptrend, while a break below $3,884 flags weakness. Traders should watch today’s close for confirmation and monitor $3,818 for signs of deeper selling or a bullish rebound.

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