Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Faces Bearish Pressure, Eyes on 10-Day Average

Gold Weakens as Sellers Regain Control, Eyes on 10-Day Support

Gold slipped on Wednesday, completing a one-day pullback marked by a lower daily high and low. Sellers remain in charge at the time of writing, with trading leaning toward a red close near the session lows. That keeps the metal on track to test support around the 10-Day moving average at $3,686, a level that also coincides with this week’s low of $3,684. Notably, the prior pullback earlier this month also found support around the 10-Day line. However, a decisive drop below this area would be technically significant as it could trigger a bearish reversal signal on the weekly timeframe, raising the odds of a deeper pullback.

Resistance Zone Holds Firm

Tuesday’s rally peaked at $3,791, right within a broad resistance zone defined by at least five technical indicators. These included the measured move projection from the bullish swing prior to the recent symmetrical triangle, along with the breakout objective from the triangle itself. Despite gold’s decisive breakout and strong momentum, this zone has capped near-term upside. The fact that price has repeatedly held above the 10-Day line since late August highlights steady demand but losing that support would mark a meaningful shift in tone.

Momentum Shows Early Cracks

Short-term momentum indicators are beginning to flash caution. The relative strength index (RSI), which had previously confirmed gold’s run to record highs, is now showing a small bearish divergence. While price has continued to climb, the RSI has rolled over with a lower swing high. That signals fading momentum and raises the probability of continued downside pressure, particularly if intraday bounces stall beneath today’s price range between $3,717 and $3,779.

Deeper Pullback Levels

If the 10-Day average fails to contain the pullback, attention shifts to a wider support zone that begins with last week’s low of $3,627 and extends to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,609. Adding weight to this range is the rising 20-Day moving average, currently at $3,617. A test of the 20-Day line would be the first since gold regained upside momentum in late August and would signal a more meaningful cooling of the rally.

For now, gold’s short-term trend remains vulnerable to further weakness. Unless buyers can quickly reclaim resistance and drive a close back above $3,779, the bias shifts toward a deeper test of underlying support zones.

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