Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Measured Move Targets $4,306 Completion

Bulls Drive Relentless Advance

Enthusiasm for gold persisted on Thursday, propelling it to a new high of $4,299 with robust momentum. Bulls hold sway as of this writing, potentially extending gains before the close and capping another wide-range green day near the session’s peak—mirroring buyer dominance. The shallow overlap into Wednesday’s range before resuming ascent highlights this vigor, underscoring sustained demand in the precious metal.

Measured Move and Pivot Potential

Despite the bullish fervor, extension risk grows, elevating correction odds. A measured move culminates at $4,306 on a percentage basis, aligning the current rally from May 15’s $3,121 low with the prior upswing from November 24, 2024’s $2,536 bottom. Symmetry here flags a pivot; exceeding it would confirm ongoing strength, while proximity invites scrutiny for reversal cues.

Momentum Acceleration and Risks

Bullish momentum has sharpened since last week’s 10-day average test, with the ascent’s slope steepening and distance from the average widening—signaling heightened pullback risk beyond the mild dips seen post-consolidation breakout six weeks ago. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 86.7 delves deeper into overbought terrain, echoing July 2020 extremes, as the price angle turns parabolic.

Uptrend Strength and Blow-Off Scenario

The short-term uptrend stays resolute, arrowed higher. A sustained breakout above today’s high could morph into blow-off top, amplified by recent bull breaches of short- and long-term rising channels. Today’s expansive range and probable high close amplify accelerating momentum, affirming buyer control.

Support Levels and Demand Clues

Key dynamic support resides at the 10-day average ($4,062 currently). Pullbacks near prior top channel lines—former resistance—will reveal demand shifts, potentially flipping to support. Monitor these for sustained health or emerging fatigue in the rally.

Outlook and Key Watchpoints

Gold’s trajectory favors upside until proven otherwise, with $4,306 as a logical capstone or springboard. Overbought metrics warrant vigilance; a dip to $4,062 tests resolve. Today’s close will clarify if momentum peaks or powers on—channel dynamics and RSI will guide the next phase.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.