S&P Futures Edge Higher as Traders Lean Into Rate Cut Hopes
December E-mini S&P 500 futures are ticking up ahead of the cash open, and buyers are taking another swing at the week’s highs. The first hurdle is still the November 12 top at 6900.50, with the record high at 6953.75 sitting just above it. On the downside, dip-buyers have been defending 6802.00, while the 50-day moving average at 6771.02 remains the bigger line in the sand. The tone is steady — helped by growing conviction that the Fed cuts next week.
Are Rate Cut Bets Keeping Futures Supported
Stock futures barely moved, but traders clearly like the setup. Expectations for a December cut have pushed above 80%, and that’s keeping sellers quiet for now. The ADP report on Wednesday — showing a surprise drop in private payrolls — gave the market another reason to think the Fed is finally ready to take its foot off the brake. The Dow (DJI) added more than 400 points, with the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (IXIC) following, even if the move wasn’t explosive. It was enough to show buyers are still stepping in on soft data.
What’s Moving Premarket
Salesforce is giving the Dow a little lift after raising its revenue forecast, while Five Below is jumping after crushing earnings. Snowflake, on the other hand, is getting hit hard after its revenue outlook underwhelmed even though last quarter looked fine on paper.
Traders also rewarded nCino, UiPath, Dollar General, and Toast after upbeat guidance or analyst support. It’s a mixed board, but the bias leans toward rewarding solid visibility — something the market has been craving.
Is Tech Losing Its Grip on Leadership
The AI trade wobbled again Wednesday. Microsoft slipped after a report on lower AI-related sales targets, though the company pushed back and the stock bounced off its lows. Nvidia and Broadcom also lagged. And while one soft session doesn’t rewrite the playbook, traders have noticed the recent move toward defensive groups. That rotation suggests a little caution creeping in — not full-blown risk-off, but enough to keep tech bulls on their toes.
Dow Jones Price Forecast
Every new Dow Jones analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Dow Jones forecastsHow Do Jobless Claims Change the Picture Now
Jobless claims dropped to 191,000 — the lowest since 2022 — which complicates the labor story. Payrolls are cooling, yet layoffs aren’t accelerating. Traders may treat this as one of those “good enough” prints that doesn’t derail cut expectations but also doesn’t scream slowdown. California and Texas drove most of the decline, and continuing claims slipped a bit as well.
Bottom Line: What Matters Next
The market wants to push higher, but follow-through will hinge on Friday’s PCE release and the early read on consumer sentiment. If inflation stays contained, buyers probably test that 6900.50 resistance again — but they’ll need clean data to take a shot at the record. Until then, the bias leans constructive, with traders favoring dips rather than pressing shorts.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
