Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver Analysis: Bullish Patterns Form as Tariffs Boost Safe-Haven Demand

Gold (XAUUSD) prices maintain a positive bias as trade tensions and expectations of rate cuts continue to support demand for safe havens. Spot gold trades above $3,300 and appears poised to build positive momentum. The uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s aggressive tariff stance keeps global markets on edge, prompting investors to seek refuge in non-yielding assets, such as gold.

However, the latest FOMC minutes revealed limited support for an immediate rate cut. The US dollar rebounds from the strong support and moves towards the resistance of 99.

Trump’s fresh tariff threats, including a 50% duty on copper starting 1 August, add new layers of economic uncertainty. The potential inflationary impact of these policies raises concerns within the Fed, though most officials still expect rate cuts later this year. Moreover, the US Dollar remains weak, and its rebound is likely to remain limited below 100.50. However, a break above 100.50 would likely extend the rally in the US Dollar Index.

Gold Technical Analysis

XAUUSD Daily Chart – Ascending Triangle

The daily chart for spot gold indicates that the price is consolidating within an ascending triangle and remains in an uncertain zone, despite forming a bullish price pattern. The price is consolidating around the 50-day SMA, and this consolidation has resulted in a drop in the RSI below the 50 level. As a result, gold has entered a neutral zone, and a strong rebound is needed to ease the current consolidation patterns.

A recovery above $3,367 would be a positive signal and could initiate a move toward the $3,450 level. However, only a confirmed break above $3,450 would signal a strong bullish breakout for spot gold.

XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart – Uncertain Zone

The 4-hour chart for spot gold shows that the price is consolidating within an uncertain zone and is likely to trigger the next move. As long as the price remains above the $3,200 area, the bullish price structure is likely to remain valid. A break above $3,430 could push the price toward $3,500, and a breakout above $3,500 would be a strong bullish signal for spot gold.

Silver Technical Analysis

XAGUSD Daily Chart – Cup Pattern above $35

The daily chart for spot silver shows that the price has formed a bullish structure following a breakout above the $35 area. This breakout emerged after the formation of an Adam and Eve pattern, with the positive price action between $33.60 and $31.60 reinforcing the bullish outlook. Additionally, a rounding cup pattern above $35 has strengthened the upward momentum. A break above $37 is likely to push silver to higher levels.

XAGUSD 4-Hour Chart – Bullish Momentum

The 4-hour chart for spot silver shows that the price is consolidating above the orange zone near the $35 region. These consolidations are producing bullish price action, as each correction around $35.50 has resulted in a strong rebound. This pattern suggests a likely breakout to the upside. A break above $37 could push spot silver to higher levels.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily – Rebound

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows that the index is consolidating and rebounding from the 96.50 level, approaching the 98 area. The index remains under bearish pressure, with each rebound likely to face resistance at the 50-day SMA. Currently, the 50-day SMA lies near the 98.90 level, which serves as strong resistance. As long as the index remains below 100.50, the downward trend is likely to continue.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Descending Channel

The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows that the index is approaching the resistance of the descending channel. A break above 98 could take the index to the 99 area, and a break above 99 may lead it toward the 100.50 level. However, strong resistance lies at 100.50, and the index is likely to resume its decline once the rebound is complete.