Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver Technical Analysis: Fed Signals and Dollar Moves Shape Outlook

Gold (XAUUSD) prices dropped toward $3,300 and remain directionless as the market consolidates between $3,250 and $3,450. Traders are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming Minutes and Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Expectations for a September rate cut remain high, but uncertainty persists after mixed economic data.

The chart below shows that the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded from 4.20%, which has pressured gold prices. Strong retail sales and sticky inflation reinforced doubts about aggressive Fed easing, limiting gold’s near-term upside momentum.

Geopolitical factors also play a key role in gold’s outlook. Optimism about a possible Ukraine-Russia ceasefire has reduced safe-haven demand. However, any breakdown in talks could quickly restore bullish flows into bullion.

Despite current pressures, the broader outlook for gold remains bullish. Corrections toward the lower end of the range are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities, with long-term targets still favouring the upside.

Gold Technical Analysis

XAUUSD Daily Chart – Consolidation

The daily chart for spot gold shows price consolidation within an ascending triangle, reflecting uncertainty. The consolidation range lies between $3,250 and $3,450. A break below $3,250 would likely push gold toward the $3,175 region. Conversely, a break above $3,450 is needed to confirm upward momentum.

The RSI has slipped back below the 50 level, adding to the uncertain outlook. The market appears to be waiting for a catalyst to trigger the next significant move. Until then, gold prices may continue to trade sideways within this range.

XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation

The 4-hour chart for spot gold shows consolidation between the $3,250 and $3,450 levels. A break below $3,250 would open the way for further downside. On the other hand, a break above $3,450 would bring gold into the key decision zone between $3,450 and $3,500. A confirmed move above $3,500 could drive prices toward record highs and potentially push gold toward the $4,000 region.

Silver Technical Analysis

XAGUSD Daily Chart – Support at 50-Day SMA

The daily chart for spot silver (XAGUSD) shows that the price is approaching the 50-day SMA, reflecting uncertainty as the US Dollar Index rebounds from a key support level. Silver is correcting toward its support zone, and a break below the 50-day SMA at the $37.20 region could drive prices lower toward the $35 area.

The $35 region remains a critical support level, which was previously held before a strong bullish breakout. This correction in spot silver could present a key buying opportunity, with potential for prices to trade higher toward the $43 region in 2025.

XAGUSD 4-Hour Chart – Correction

The 4-hour charts for spot silver show negative price action below $38.60. A break above $38.60 is required to sustain upside momentum. However, as long as prices remain below this level, silver is likely to move toward the strong support zone between $35 and $34.50. This support region is expected to trigger a sharp rebound, with potential for prices to climb toward the $43 area.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily – Rebound

The daily chart for the USD Index shows consolidation below the 100.50 level. This consolidation reflects negative price action, although the index may rebound back toward 100.50, given the strong congestion zone around this area. Despite a possible rebound, the broader trend for the USD Index is likely to remain bearish.

A break above 100.50 could open the way toward the 102 level. A confirmed move above 102 would negate the bearish outlook and signal further upside momentum.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Rebound from Support

The 4-hour chart for the USD Index shows consolidation at the support of an ascending broadening wedge pattern over the past six days. This consolidation suggests that the index is forming a base and may initiate a short-term rebound toward the 99.20 level.

Such a rebound in the USD Index could pressure spot gold prices to correct lower. However, as long as the index remains below the 102 level, the broader direction for the USD Index is likely to stay bearish.