Gold Closes Lower but Holds the Weekly Pivot — All Eyes on Powell
Gold (XAU/USD) settled at $3335.70 for the week, down $62.07 or 1.83%, as hotter U.S. inflation data clipped rate cut enthusiasm and capped upside momentum. Despite the pullback, gold held above the key weekly pivot at $3310.48 — the 50% retracement of the $3500.20 to $3120.76 range — keeping a slight upside bias intact heading into Jackson Hole.
Fed Policy Expectations Get Rattled After Hot PPI
The mood around Fed policy shifted fast after Thursday’s U.S. Producer Price Index came in blazing hot at +0.9% m/m — the largest jump in three years. That upside shock, combined with lower-than-expected jobless claims, forced the market to dial back bets on an aggressive September rate cut.
While the CME FedWatch Tool still shows a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point move, any talk of a 50bp cut is now off the table. That loss of easing momentum kept gold pinned below resistance and on track for a weekly loss.
Dollar Softens, But Gold Lacks a Catalyst
The U.S. dollar index eased into the weekend, giving gold a window to bounce — but there wasn’t much follow-through. Treasury yields held steady after a volatile week, and traders largely stayed on the sidelines ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium. Even with geopolitical tension lingering in the background, physical demand and ETF flows remained muted, contributing to the stalled price action.
Key Weekly Levels in Play
From a weekly chart perspective, $3310.48 remains the battleground. Gold has been straddling this midpoint since early May, and as long as that level holds, buyers still have the edge. A sustained move higher could ignite a rally toward the twin tops at $3439.04 and $3451.53, with the $3500.20 all-time high in sight if momentum accelerates.
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See all Gold forecastsOn the flip side, a weekly close below $3310.48 exposes downside targets at $3268.12 and $3244.41. Below that, the major support rests at $3120.76, with $2949.56 as the deeper long-term objective.
Next Week: Jackson Hole Could Break the Stalemate
The focus now turns to Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole on Friday, August 22 (14:00 GMT). If he signals flexibility or concern about growth risks, gold could surge off the weekly pivot and target higher resistance levels. But if he reaffirms confidence in inflation control, sellers may press for a break below $3310.48. More likely than not, gold remains stuck in range until Powell gives it a reason to move.
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