Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Bullish Momentum Targets $4000 on Shutdown Fears

Gold Price Rips Through $3900 as Shutdown Sparks Safe-Haven Bid

Spot gold (XAU/USD) exploded higher on Monday, tagging a new record at $3949.67 after clearing last week’s high at $3897.13. With safe-haven demand intensifying and market participants increasingly pricing in near-term rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, the $4000.00 psychological level is now in play.

Despite rising Treasury yields and a firmer U.S. Dollar, gold’s bullish momentum is holding strong. Traders appear to be positioning defensively as the U.S. government shutdown drags on, stalling key economic data releases and threatening federal layoffs.

At 11:19 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $3935.42, up $48.96 or +1.26%.

Shutdown Risk and Fed Expectations Fuel Gold Rally

The U.S. government shutdown is now extending into a second week, with no progress on a resolution. On Friday, both Republican and Democrat funding proposals failed in Congress, increasing market uncertainty. White House officials warned over the weekend that widespread federal layoffs could begin if negotiations break down entirely.

The data blackout triggered by the shutdown—most notably the delayed September jobs report—has added to the sense of unease. This lack of clarity is pushing traders to lean more heavily on Fed speak this week, with Governor Stephen Miran and Chair Jerome Powell set to speak Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

Meanwhile, Fed funds futures show growing conviction for a 25-basis-point cut this month, followed by another in December. UBS now sees gold reaching $4200/oz by year-end, citing both fundamental and momentum-driven tailwinds.

Treasury Yields Climb but Gold Ignores It—for Now

Despite the safe-haven move into bullion, Treasury yields were broadly higher across the curve. The 10-year note rose to 4.156%, while the 30-year yield pushed to 4.758%. Even the 2-year inched up to 3.586%. Typically, higher yields weigh on gold, but that relationship has decoupled in the current environment, with traders focused more on headline risk and the prospect of Fed policy easing.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) also gained, testing a key retracement zone between 98.238 and 98.714 after reclaiming its 50-day moving average at 98.043. Resistance looms at 98.605, 98.635, and 98.834. Gold’s ability to rally against this backdrop signals strong demand beneath the surface.

Will Gold Break $4000 or Fade into Resistance?

Technically, momentum remains firmly bullish after the breakout above $3897.13. The next upside target is $4000.00, followed by projected extensions toward $4200 as per recent institutional calls.

On the downside, initial support sits at the swing bottom of $3819.42. A break below this level would shift near-term momentum bearish, opening the door to a pullback toward the $3700s.

For now, the bias stays bullish — but $4000 isn’t a guarantee. Keep an eye on Powell’s comments and be ready to reassess if support at $3819.42 cracks.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.