Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Bulls Defend Key Support Zone Ahead of Crucial CPI Data

Key Support Holds but CPI Test Looms After Tariff-Driven Slide

Gold prices rebounded modestly on Tuesday after dropping 3% in the prior session, as investors responded to progress in U.S.-China trade talks and positioned ahead of a critical U.S. inflation report.

While Monday’s steep selloff reflected a shift away from safe-haven demand, technical buyers stepped in at key support, helping prices stabilize. Still, with the Federal Reserve’s next move hinging on inflation data and the broader risk tone improving, gold remains vulnerable to further downside.

At 09:33 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3253.38, up $18.305 or +0.57%.

Technical Rebound Holds for Now, but Chart Structure Favors More Downside

The rebound was fueled by a successful retest of a retracement zone between $3228.38 and $3164.23. Buyers also defended the May 1 swing bottom at $3201.95, temporarily halting the bearish momentum. However, the upside appears limited without a move through resistance between $3318.50 and $3351.08, where sellers are likely to re-emerge.

A break below $3201.95 would shift the main trend to down on the daily swing chart and target the next major level at $3145.00—the 50-day moving average. This moving average could act as both a technical magnet and a key sentiment indicator for the rest of the year.

Tariff Truce Sparks Risk-On Trade, Pressures Gold

Gold’s sharp decline on Monday followed the announcement of a temporary U.S.-China tariff truce. The U.S. agreed to reduce import duties from 145% to 30%, while China cut tariffs from 125% to 10%. The agreement eased trade tensions and fueled a rally in global equities, while the U.S. dollar surged to a one-month high—both factors that undercut gold’s appeal.

CPI Report Could Shift Fed Expectations, Influence Gold Price Future

Traders are now focused on the April U.S. Consumer Price Index report, which could shape expectations for Fed policy. Barclays projects headline CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month (2.3% year-over-year), with core CPI up 0.2% (2.8% year-over-year). Although tariffs were implemented in early April, economists expect little immediate impact on prices due to exemptions and advanced shipments that likely front-loaded inflationary pressure into Q1.

A softer-than-expected CPI print could take pressure off the Fed and weaken the dollar, offering short-term support for gold. However, any upside surprise would likely reinforce expectations for tighter policy, boosting yields and dragging on gold.

Citi Sees Rangebound Gold Market, Downgrades 3-Month Price Prediction

Citi Research lowered its 3-month gold price target from $3,500 to $3,150, citing reduced geopolitical risk and a likely short-term consolidation between $3,000 and $3,300. The bank sees continued ETF demand driven by rising precautionary savings, but also flagged downside pressure from weaker jewelry demand and increased scrap supply.

Gold Market Forecast: Bearish Bias Below $3201, CPI the Next Key Driver

While gold has staged a technical bounce, the structure remains fragile. The market is struggling to hold the $3228.38 to $3164.23 retracement zone, and a break below $3201.95 would confirm a bearish trend shift with $3145.00 as the next key level.

With risk sentiment improving and CPI data on deck, gold’s next move will likely depend on whether inflation comes in hot or cool—either outcome could define short-term direction, but the bias remains tilted to the downside unless buyers reclaim control above $3351.08.

More Information in our XAU/USD.