Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: CPI Puts Gold Market at Breakout or Pullback Point

Gold Price Edges Lower As CPI Takes Center Stage

Spot gold is pulling back modestly on Thursday as traders position ahead of the U.S. Consumer Price Index, the dominant risk event for the session. Price action remains constructive, but momentum has stalled as the market avoids committing aggressively before inflation data that could reset rate expectations and near-term direction.

At 11:53 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4326.65, down $11.17 or -0.26%.

CPI Expectations Drive Gold Price Behavior

Investors are awaiting November’s CPI report, due at 8:30 a.m. GMT, with economists forecasting a 3.1% year-on-year increase. Core CPI is projected at 3.0%, and the release will focus solely on annual readings after October’s monthly data was disrupted by the government shutdown. A softer print would reinforce easing expectations, while a firmer outcome risks keeping the dollar bid and gold capped.

Markets are currently pricing in two additional 25-basis-point rate cuts next year, leaving gold sensitive to any data that strengthens or weakens that view. Recent labor data showing unemployment rising to 4.6% has already tilted sentiment toward further easing, though Fed commentary remains divided.

Gold Price Struggles Below $4353.56 Resistance

From a price perspective, XAU/USD is attempting for a fourth session to clear last week’s high at $4353.56. A confirmed break would reopen the path toward the record high at $4381.44. The repeated failure to push through resistance reflects CPI-related hesitation rather than a loss of underlying demand.

On the downside, first support is the minor pivot at $4258.68. The market has consistently treated pullbacks as buying opportunities, reinforcing the prevailing buy-the-dip behavior.

A failure at that pivot would expose $4192.36, an area where prices consolidated for roughly two weeks earlier this month. The broader trend remains anchored by the 50-day moving average at $4140.42, which continues to act as the major support and trend indicator.

Dollar And Treasury Yields React Ahead Of Inflation Data

Gold is facing near-term pressure from a firmer dollar, with the dollar index holding around 98.35, increasing the cost of bullion for overseas buyers. Currency markets are also positioning for central bank decisions in Britain, Europe, and Japan, adding to near-term dollar support.

U.S. Treasury yields are edging lower as traders await CPI confirmation. The 10-year yield is near 4.135%, while the 2-year is around 3.464%, keeping rate-cut expectations alive and limiting downside pressure on non-yielding assets.

Gold Price Forecast Hinges On CPI Outcome

The short-term gold price outlook remains cautiously bullish as long as $4258.68 holds. A softer CPI print would likely give bulls the confidence to press for a breakout above $4353.56, putting $4381.44 back in play. A hotter inflation reading shifts focus toward $4192.36, with the broader trend still supported above the 50-day moving average at $4140.42.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.