Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Gold Breakout Eyes $4,381 as Dollar Slides to Two-Week Low

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) Hits Six-Week High as Rate Cut Bets Build

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) is grinding higher Monday, clearing the November 13 high at $4,245.20 without much drama. No fireworks — just steady buying as traders lean into growing expectations for a December Fed cut.

The setup’s been building for weeks. Softer U.S. data, dovish Fed speak from Waller and Williams, and now markets pricing an 88% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. That’s the kind of backdrop that pulls money into non-yielding assets like gold. Lower borrowing costs reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion, and traders are positioning accordingly.

Adding fuel: speculation around Fed leadership. Kevin Hassett — a known dove — said he’d take the chair if asked, and Treasury Secretary Bessent expects Trump to name a successor before Christmas. The market’s already trading as if easier policy is coming, one way or another.

At 11:24 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4252.65, up $36.83 or +0.87%.

Dollar Weakness Reinforcing the Bid

The U.S. Dollar Index isn’t doing gold bears any favors. The greenback slipped to a two-week low Monday, coming off its worst weekly performance against major currencies in four months. A softer dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers — and right now, that’s adding another layer of support.

With December pricing nearly locked in, traders are starting to look further out. Money markets show little chance of another cut before spring, and some analysts expect a “hawkish cut” — a reduction paired with guidance that more easing isn’t imminent. That could put a floor under the dollar eventually, but for now, the path of least resistance favors gold.

Traders Eye $4,381 — But Data Looms Large

Friday’s strong close left spot gold sitting above a key retracement zone between $4,133.95 and $4,192.36 — now acting as fresh support. The 50-day moving average at $4,040.46 remains the bigger floor, but buyers haven’t needed to test it.

With the November high cleared, attention turns to the October 20 peak at $4,381.44. UBS sees $4,500 next year — not a stretch if the Fed delivers and leadership tilts dovish.

Still, this week’s data could shift the mood. ADP employment on Wednesday and core PCE on Friday will either confirm the soft-landing story or complicate it. If the numbers come in hot, some of that rate-cut confidence could unwind fast — and gold would feel it.

Bottom line: XAUUSD has momentum, a supportive Fed narrative, and a weak dollar at its back. Buyers are in control, but this week’s data will decide whether they stay that way.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.