Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Gold Price Breakout Fuels Rally as Buyers Eye Record Highs

Gold Surges Early in U.S. Trade as Buyers Press the Breakout

Spot gold is sharply higher early in the U.S. session, pushing toward the all-time high at $4381.44. This move is happening right out of the gate in New York, not late in the day, which gives it more weight.

Buyers aren’t waiting for confirmation — they’re stepping in early, lifting price through recent highs and keeping pressure to the upside, even if some traders stay cautious about chasing at these levels.

At 13:20 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4336.46, up $57.12 or +1.33%.

The advance follows a decisive break from a tight consolidation that had frustrated both sides for nearly two weeks. Once that ceiling gave way, momentum picked up quickly, and price is now trading more freely rather than grinding.

Range Resolution Unlocks Upside Momentum

From a technical standpoint, the trigger is clear. Gold broke out of the trading range that had been underpinned by Fibonacci support at $4192.38 for nearly two-weeks. That level repeatedly held, signaling sellers were struggling to force acceptance lower. Today’s follow-through confirms the market accepted higher prices.

The structure above is clean. There is no defined resistance between the current intraday high at $4339.46 and the all-time high at $4381.44, leaving a wide pocket where momentum buyers can operate without running into obvious supply.

On pullbacks, support is layered and well-defined. Initial support sits at $4192.36, followed by $4133.95. Below that, the major 50-day moving average at $4114.96 remains the key technical floor. As long as gold holds above this zone, sellers are likely to stay cautious and dips should continue to draw interest.

Dollar Weakness and Rate Expectations Keep Tailwinds Intact

The fundamental backdrop is helping. The U.S. dollar remains soft, hovering near multi-month lows and on track for a third straight weekly decline. That continues to lower the barrier for gold buying, particularly from overseas participants.

Rate expectations are reinforcing the move. The Fed trimmed rates by 25 basis points this week but indicated caution on additional cuts. Even so, investors are currently pricing in two rate cuts next year, keeping the rate backdrop supportive for non-yielding assets like gold, even if the market is still parsing how firm the Fed wants to sound.

Safe-Haven Demand Adds Fuel

There’s also a clear safety bid. The sharp rise in U.S. weekly jobless claims is underpinning gold and keeping haven demand strong, alongside geopolitical tension tied to U.S.–Venezuela developments. Physical demand is softer in parts of Asia due to elevated spot prices, but futures flows and haven positioning are doing most of the work right now.

Outlook: Buyers in Control, Eyes on Records

Bottom line: gold is behaving like a market that wants to test $4381.44, not fade away from it. Early U.S. session strength matters, and unless price slips back below $4192.36 and starts leaning on $4133.95, the near-term bias stays higher — even if intraday volatility picks up as traders manage gains.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.