Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Gold Price Firms Above $4258.68 as CPI Test Looms

Gold Price Firms as Traders Eye CPI and Hold the Dip-Buying Bias

Spot Gold is grinding higher this morning, holding above the short-term pivot at $4258.68 as buyers stay engaged in the broader uptrend. The market is circling last week’s high at $4353.56, and traders are sizing up whether there’s enough momentum for a run at the record $4381.44. Dip-buyers are still the ones setting the tone into Thursday’s CPI release.

At 13:56 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4337.26, up $35.03 or +0.81%.

Gold Market Steady as Yields Tick Up Ahead of Inflation Data

Treasury yields moved slightly higher, but not enough to knock gold off balance. The 10-year sits near 4.165%, with the 2-year at 3.495% — minor moves, but a reminder that rate pressure hasn’t faded. Even so, gold is holding its ground, which tells us sellers aren’t pushing aggressively ahead of the data.

Labor numbers remain a talking point after the 43-day government shutdown delayed reporting. October payrolls fell 105,000 while unemployment rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021. November added 64,000 jobs versus the 45,000 estimate, but Powell’s comment that payrolls may have been overstated by 60,000 a month since April is keeping traders cautious. A softer labor backdrop tends to keep gold supported, and we’re seeing that in price behavior.

Dollar Rebounds Slightly but Stays Weak Overall

The dollar index is up 0.35% at 98.54, but it’s still near multi-month lows and down nearly 9.5% on the year. With no strong dollar headwind, gold is finding it easier to stay anchored above $4258.68 while traders wait for CPI to provide a clearer direction.

Central Banks Crowd the Back Half of the Week

The Fed cut rates last week and signaled it’s in no rush to do more. Fed funds futures price just a 22% chance of a January cut. Markets still expect two cuts next year, but nothing near-term looks urgent. Add in the BoE and ECB on Thursday and the BOJ on Friday — where Japan is set for its highest policy rate in three decades — and gold traders have a full slate of catalysts.

Gold Price Forecast: Bulls in Control Unless $4258.68 Breaks

The outlook stays bullish while gold holds above $4258.68. A break through $4353.56 unlocks a path toward $4381.44, and buyers will likely stay active unless CPI surprises to the upside. If the pivot fails, watch for a sharp slide into $4192.36–$4133.95, with the 50-day moving average at $4133.36 as the key line of defense.

Gold still leans higher — CPI will determine how strong that push becomes.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.