Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Gold Rally Accelerates After $4381.44 Breakout

Gold Price Explodes To New Record As Traders Chase Strength Into Holidays

Spot gold opened Monday by smashing through the former main top at $4381.44, extending the rally into uncharted territory and printing fresh all-time highs above the $4,400 handle. The move reflects aggressive upside participation rather than short covering, with traders showing little hesitation to buy strength despite stretched positioning.

This breakout is unfolding as liquidity thins ahead of Christmas, amplifying directional moves and rewarding momentum-based strategies. With few sellers willing to step in and stops repeatedly triggered above prior highs, gold continues to trade as a one-way market.

At 11:14 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4408.58, up $69.81 or +1.61%.

Upside Momentum Dominates Gold Market Positioning

Gold’s advance shows conviction rather than late-stage exhaustion. The metal is now up nearly 70% year-to-date, marking its strongest annual performance since 1979. Central bank accumulation, sustained portfolio hedging, and persistent geopolitical risk continue to absorb supply, keeping pauses brief and shallow.

The former resistance at $4381.44 has been decisively cleared. What capped price last week is now accepted above, reinforcing confidence that higher levels are being built on participation, not thin volume spikes.

Gold Buyers Ignore Higher Yields As Conviction Builds

A key signal today is gold’s resilience in the face of rising Treasury yields. The U.S. 10-year yield is ticking higher, yet gold shows no sensitivity. When gold rallies alongside firmer yields, it typically reflects urgency to secure exposure rather than rate-driven positioning, reinforcing the strength of current demand.

This behavior suggests positioning is being driven by capital preservation and risk hedging rather than tactical rate trades.

Rates, Policy Expectations, And Real Asset Demand Support Gold

Expectations for lower U.S. interest rates remain a core tailwind. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran reiterated that easing inflation supports rate cuts to offset labor market risks. Gold continues to benefit from lower real-rate expectations even as nominal yields firm.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo has noted that strength across commodities reflects investor demand for real assets as inflation risks persist longer than previously assumed.

Fiscal Credibility And Year-End Flows Keep Gold Bid

Concerns around fiscal discipline remain part of the gold narrative. Matthew McLennan highlighted expanding deficits across major economies as a driver behind renewed interest in gold as a monetary hedge. Political pressure on central banks and geopolitical rhetoric continue to reinforce defensive allocation.

With price trading roughly $300 above the 50-day moving average at $4152.97, trend support is not an immediate focus. For now, momentum, acceptance above record highs, and holiday-thinned liquidity keep gold firmly bid into year-end.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.