Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Gold Rally Eyes Breakout as Bulls Target $4381.44 High

Gold Price Pushes Higher as Bulls Look for a Clean Break Above $4381.44

Spot gold is edging higher to start the week, and even though we’re still inside Friday’s range, the market looks like it wants to punch through the record high at $4381.44. We’ve now posted five straight sessions of gains, and buyers haven’t backed off.

With momentum this firm, the focus stays on an upside breakout rather than any immediate exhaustion. The nearest support is still the Fibonacci level at $4192.36, but it isn’t in play unless the market finally pulls back.

At 12:17 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4343.30, up $43.92 or +1.02%.

Gold Market Backed by Weaker Dollar and Softer Yields

The broader market backdrop is giving bulls cover. The dollar is hovering near a two-month low, and U.S. yields continue to ease — the 10-year sitting around 4.161% and the 2-year near 3.51%. That combination keeps gold supported, and it’s no surprise we saw a solid 1% move higher. Silver joined in, though it hasn’t retested Friday’s peak.

Rate Cuts Still on the Table, and Traders Know It

Even with the Fed’s divided vote last week, the market is still pricing two cuts next year, and that’s keeping buyers engaged. This week’s delayed NFP and CPI prints will help traders decide how aggressively to lean into that view, but for now the tone favors non-yielding assets. UBS pointed to strong investor flows and steady central-bank buying — both still part of the bull case.

Safe-Haven Demand Staying in the Background

Geopolitics isn’t driving every tick, but it’s adding a steady layer of support. Russia’s pushback against EU plans for frozen assets reinforces the need for hedges. Traders don’t need fireworks; they just need uncertainty, and there’s enough of it to keep gold well bid.

Gold Price Forecast: Breakout Bias Stays in Control Above $4381.44

Here’s the key: there’s no real resistance above the record high, leaving the path cleaner for upside continuation if buyers make a move. A reversal top is possible, but it’s a secondary risk — something traders will only focus on after a breakout attempt. The dominant setup stays bullish, with momentum and broader market factors aligned.

If gold extends through $4381.44, the market opens into clear air. If we finally get a pullback, the first meaningful level is $4192.36, where dip-buyers have a reason to step in.

For now, the bias remains bullish, with the market positioning for an upside break rather than a top.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.