Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Record Gold Rally Targets $5,000 on Trump Tariff Fears

Gold Surges to Record $4,748 as $5,000 Target Comes Into View

Spot gold hit another record high at $4748.71 Tuesday, moving closer to the key objective of $5000.00. There is no resistance, so no one is saying it will stop there; it’s just a big round number that speculators have eyed for years.

The nearest support and trend line indicator comes in at $4584.21. This is followed by a minor swing bottom at $4536.49.

At 14:17 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4743.58, up $73.29 or +1.57%.

Trump’s EU Tariff Threats Spark Flight-to-Safety Gold Rally

Flight-to-safety buying is once again the main catalyst behind today’s surge as traders react to fresh global tensions. Fueling today’s move are threats from President Trump to impose increasing tariffs from February 1 on eight major European countries including Denmark, France, Germany and the U.K. Trump wants to buy Greenland and the Europeans oppose the move, so he made the threat, risking renewed fears of a trade war.

Trade War Fears Could Push Interest Rates Lower, Boosting Gold Demand

One fear emerging is slower growth. An intensifying trade war could be devastating for economic growth but it could help fulfill Trump’s desire to have lower U.S. interest rates. With gold negatively correlated with interest rates, a drop in rates could drive up demand for gold.

Central Bank Buying and Geopolitical Chaos Drive 9.6% Gain in 2026

After a steady climb throughout 2025, fueled by intense central bank buying in an effort to devalue the dollar, and consistent ETF inflows from investors, geopolitics have moved to the forefront of the 2026 rally. Events like the capture of Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro and the violent unrest in Iran have largely driven this year’s 9.6% gain over 20 days. Expectations of monetary policy easing have also been supported, but their impact has been dampened because of the uncertainty over the timing of the Fed’s 2026 rate cuts.

Supreme Court Case on Fed Independence Emerges as Key Wildcard

One emerging wildcard is the upcoming decision from the U.S. Supreme Court concerning Trump’s attempts to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook from the voting committee, allegedly in an effort to control interest rates. Many analysts believe that a decision that favors Trump could erode confidence in the central bank’s independence.

Trump’s Push for Rate Cuts Could Further Strengthen Gold’s Appeal

It’s become quite obvious through quotes and headlines that Trump wants the Fed to lower interest rates and a victory in the high court may give Trump this power if it threatens the autonomy of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Lower rates tend to weaken the dollar and a cheaper dollar is good for dollar-denominated gold.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.