Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Traders Eye $4133.95 While Holding Above 50-Day Moving Average

Gold Price Outlook: Traders Eye Fed Rate Path and US-China Trade Clarity

Spot gold (XAU/USD) is firming on Thursday, gaining roughly 2% as traders react to the Fed’s latest rate cut and lingering uncertainty around the U.S.–China trade deal. Prices are attempting to build support near Tuesday’s low at $3886.46, which sits just above the 50% retracement level at $3846.50 and the 50-day moving average at $3807.38 — a key technical zone that’s underpinned the uptrend since late August.

At 11:55 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $3973.14, up $42.53 or +1.08%.

Gold Gets a Lift from Fed Cut and Dollar Pullback

The Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, bringing the fed funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. While markets had nearly fully priced in a December cut before the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cooled expectations, noting there was “strong division” among policymakers on whether further easing is warranted. Despite that, traders are still assigning a 70% probability to another cut by year-end.

Dollar softness following Powell’s comments has helped boost gold, while the yellow metal continues to benefit from falling real yields and a lower interest rate outlook. Non-yielding gold typically finds support when rates decline, as opportunity costs fall and hedging demand increases.

Support Builds Near $3886.46 as Bulls Target $4133.95

From a price structure standpoint, gold’s ability to hold above $3886.46 is key. The level is just above the 50-day moving average and 50% retracement zone — both of which have anchored bullish momentum since August 22. If bulls defend this base, the rebound rally has technical room to extend toward the 50% level at $4133.95. A break below $3807.38, however, would expose gold to deeper liquidation.

US-China Trade Deal Adds Uncertainty, Not Confidence

Gold’s upside is also being shaped by skepticism around the Trump-Xi trade announcement. Trump claimed a tariff rollback in exchange for Chinese commitments on soybeans, rare earth exports, and fentanyl enforcement, but Beijing has yet to confirm key details. Traders remain cautious, recalling past reversals in similar trade negotiations.

That uncertainty is helping keep safe haven demand alive, even as broader risk sentiment remains mixed. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s decision to hold rates and offer little guidance weighed on the yen, boosting the dollar slightly, but not enough to offset gold’s broader rate-driven support.

Gold Price Forecast: Bias Remains Bullish Above $3807.38

As long as spot gold holds above the 50-day moving average at $3807.38, the technical bias favors a continuation of the rebound toward $4133.95. The fundamental backdrop — a cautious Fed, uncertain trade outlook, and a softening dollar — supports this view. A decisive break below $3807.38 would shift the bias bearish and signal potential for deeper correction. Traders will watch Friday’s inflation data and updated rate cut odds closely.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.