Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: 8 Weeks of Ceasefire — Gold Defends $4,514, Silver Under Pressure?

Gold and Silver Consolidate as Inflation Data and Ceasefire Stability Shape Outlook

Gold and silver were mixed on May 29, 2026, as traders assessed hotter-than-expected April U.S. inflation readings and the resilience of the temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Headline and core inflation numbers in the April Consumer Price Index report exceeded expectations, dampening prospects for Fed cuts led by Kevin Warsh in the short run, and bolstering real interest rates and the dollar, which restrained gains in non-interest-yielding bullion.

The People’s Bank of China has been buying more than 17 months in a row. Other central banks in emerging-market countries have increased allocations in a continuing effort to diversify.

With a sizeable industrial component, silver faces the offsetting influences of a decline in safe-haven flows and persistent global supply deficits. Silver’s main demand comes from solar energy, electric vehicles, electronics, and AI-related infrastructure.

With the ceasefire holding and with oil trade normalization expected to be a drawn-out process, the metals should move toward trading based more on fundamentals than geopolitics. Traders will focus on any more Fed commentary.

Gold Spot Bounces Back Off $4,514 Blue Descending Channel Floor

Spot Gold trades at $4,513.77 on the 4h time-frame as the green continuation candles defended the blue descending channel floor and red 50-period Moving Average close to the $4,500.00 psychological level. Bullish rejection wicks are printing higher lows starting off the $4,367.00 swing low and is clearing the recent distribution zone. The RSI has moved above 48.00 showing recovering momentum but still remains well below overbought conditions.

A Fib retracement level from the May high is projecting the $4,526.00 to $4,550.00 area as the next key resistance zone. Volume profile levels shows $4,460.00 is a strong dynamic floor with the buyers taking the majority of the supply. A white descending trendline has been identified capping the upside near $4,576.00. Structure is holding up neutral-to-bullish with a strong floor at $4,500.00 level while testing a clean channel support level within the broader downtrend from the $4,800.00 highs.

Trade Idea: Buy Spot Gold $4,513.00 targeting $4,550.00 with a stop loss of $4,490.00.

Spot Silver Retreats To $75.10 Red MA Rejection Accelerates

Spot Silver trades at $75.10 on the 2h time-frame as the sharp red engulfing candles pushed back the red 50-period Moving Average close to the $76.50 and rejected the blue descending trendline. Bearish continuation candles are printing lower highs from the recent distribution wicks from the $78.00 high and is testing a $74.97 pivot level.

The RSI has slipped below 45.00 confirming a loss of momentum. Volume profile levels shows $76.00 is a key supply zone while the next support sits at the $74.26 to $73.20 Fib confluence level. Structure continues to give way below the $76.50 level while sliding within the confines of an extended down-channel.

Trade Idea: Sell Spot Silver $75.10 targeting $74.26 with a stop loss of $75.80.