Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Bullish Triangle Break Hints at $3,382 Gold Target

Market Overview

Gold prices extended their three-day rally in early Friday trade, hovering near $3,335 per ounce as investors sought safety amid heightened global uncertainty. The renewed demand for precious metals followed a wave of tariff announcements by the U.S., including a 35% duty on Canadian imports effective August 1.

Over 20 tariff-related letters were issued this week alone, reigniting concerns about a slowdown in global trade and economic growth.

“Markets are now repricing risk premiums, especially in hard assets like gold,” said a commodity strategist at a central U.S. investment bank. A 50% tariff on copper imports, announced earlier in the week, further intensified concerns over rising input costs and potential inflationary spillovers.

Silver Climbs to $37.35 but Faces Resistance from Strong Dollar

Silver also benefited from the risk-off sentiment, rising 0.71% on the day to $37.35. However, its upside remains tempered by the resilience of the U.S. dollar, which trades near a two-week high. The greenback’s strength is partly supported by Thursday’s U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report, which came in lower than expected at 227,000, suggesting continued labor market strength.

Fed Caution Adds to Market Jitters

Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting revealed most officials remain concerned about sticky inflation, especially amid escalating tariffs. While some policymakers, including Governor Christopher Waller, hinted at a potential rate cut as early as July, others, such as St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, struck a more cautious tone.

“The path forward remains uncertain. Inflation risks are not fully resolved,” said Musalem. This divergence in views has contributed to investor caution, limiting aggressive positioning in gold despite supportive macro conditions.

Short-Term Forecast

With no primary U.S. economic data scheduled for release on Friday, traders are monitoring Fed commentary and geopolitical headlines for short-term direction. Gold remains stable near $3,335, while silver’s technical breakout above $37.26 suggests room for upside if sentiment deteriorates further.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) has broken above a key symmetrical triangle pattern on the 2-hour chart, signaling a potential bullish breakout. The move above $3,330 and the recent surge through $3,345 confirm bullish momentum, especially with the 50-EMA and 200-EMA now acting as dynamic support. If bulls maintain control, the next resistance lies near $3,363 and then $3,382.

Failure to hold above $3,330 could invalidate the breakout and send prices back toward $3,307 or even $3,283. The breakout aligns with broader shifts in risk sentiment, and traders will be watching for sustained closes above $3,345 to confirm the continuation.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) has broken out sharply above the $37.26 resistance, gaining momentum and reaching a high of $37.44. The breakout confirms bullish control after a prolonged consolidation between $36.88 and $37.26. The 50-EMA and 200-EMA are now trending higher, providing firm dynamic support near $36.72 and $36.36, respectively.

If the rally sustains above $37.26, the next resistance lies at $37.74, followed by $38.06. However, any retracement below $37.26 could trigger a pullback toward $36.88 and $36.40.

The ascending trendline from late June continues to hold, reinforcing the bullish structure. Traders should watch for volume confirmation and broader market cues to assess continuation toward $38.36.