Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Dollar Rebound Limits Fed-Driven Rally

Market Overview

Gold and silver prices edged lower in early European trading as investors balanced dovish Federal Reserve expectations against a firmer US dollar and improved risk sentiment. The pullback followed a brief rally earlier in the week when soft economic data reinforced bets on a potential Fed rate cut in December.

Fed Cut Bets Support Precious Metals

Gold initially benefited from growing signs of a slowing US economy. Weak October labor data showed a fragile employment landscape, with private firms cutting 9,100 jobs and government payrolls shrinking by 22,200, according to Revelio Labs. A separate report from the Chicago Federal Reserve pointed to a marginal rise in unemployment, further hinting that the labor market’s post-pandemic resilience is fading.

“Traders are increasingly positioning for a rate cut before year-end,” said one market strategist at a London-based brokerage. “Any dovish shift from the Fed tends to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.”

Silver mirrored gold’s cautious tone, slipping modestly as investors sought clarity on monetary policy. Despite its industrial use, silver’s dual role as both a safe-haven and growth-linked asset has made it sensitive to shifts in interest rate expectations.

Dollar Strength Caps Metal Gains

The rally in precious metals lost traction after the US dollar rebounded from a two-week low. The move came as investors welcomed progress on the government funding deal, easing short-term fiscal concerns and restoring confidence across equity markets.

The stronger greenback, which often moves inversely to commodities, curbed foreign demand for metals.

“Dollar resilience is keeping gold and silver trapped in a narrow range,” said analysts at Saxo Bank, noting that improving global risk appetite has also reduced safe-haven demand.

Market Focus Turns to Upcoming Fed Speeches

Investors now await fresh policy signals from upcoming Federal Reserve remarks and key economic indicators later this week. Traders are watching for confirmation of whether rate cuts remain on the table amid lingering inflation risks.

While short-term sentiment remains mixed, analysts note that persistent geopolitical uncertainty and a fragile global growth outlook could continue to underpin demand for gold and silver heading into year-end.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) is expected to trade between $4,060 and $4,145 as traders await Fed guidance, while Silver (XAG/USD) may hover near $51.20–$52.00 amid strong momentum but limited upside.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating near $4,108 after pulling back from the upper boundary of an ascending channel. The price remains supported above $4,099 and the 50-period EMA, while the 20-EMA still indicates short-term strength.

A break below $4,099 could expose $4,045 and $4,000 as next supports, whereas sustained buying above $4,145 may open a path toward $4,227. RSI has eased from overbought levels, suggesting limited upside momentum in the near term.

If the indicator stabilizes above 50, buyers could regain control. Overall, gold maintains a constructive bias as long as it trades within the rising channel and holds above the $4,060–$4,100 support area.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $51.25, testing the upper boundary of its ascending channel. The price remains above both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, showing strong bullish momentum.

However, the RSI is hovering near 70, suggesting the market may face short-term resistance near $51.35. A break above this level could open the door toward $52.70 and $54.47. On the downside, initial support lies at $50.30, followed by $49.20 if selling pressure intensifies.

As long as silver stays above $50.00 and maintains its trendline support, the broader outlook remains positive, though a brief correction cannot be ruled out.