Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Cut Bets and Geopolitical Risks Drive Demand

Market Overview

Gold eased slightly in early Tuesday trading after reaching a record peak, yet underlying fundamentals continue to support demand for the precious metal. Investors remain cautious amid heightened geopolitical risks, the prospect of a U.S. government shutdown, and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.

Silver, often trading in tandem with gold, has also benefited from safe-haven flows and a weaker U.S. Dollar.

Geopolitical Tensions Keep Safe-Haven Demand Strong

Geopolitical uncertainty continues to shape investor sentiment, driving flows into traditional safe-haven assets. Market participants remain on edge as global conflicts threaten to escalate, while renewed sanctions on energy exporters highlight vulnerabilities in supply chains.

Analysts note that in periods of heightened uncertainty, both gold and silver tend to outperform risk assets, particularly equities.

The looming U.S. budget standoff has further amplified market caution. With the government facing the risk of a shutdown, Treasury yields have softened, pushing demand toward precious metals. “Gold remains the natural hedge against both political risk and fiscal uncertainty,” one New York-based commodities strategist said.

Fed Rate Cut Bets Pressure the U.S. Dollar

Expectations of a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve are a key driver in the current rally. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in October, with nearly 70% odds of another cut in December. The U.S. Dollar has weakened for three consecutive sessions, enhancing gold’s appeal to international buyers and lending support to silver as well.

While near-term momentum has slowed after steep gains, analysts highlight that the combination of monetary easing expectations and geopolitical instability provides a solid backdrop for continued strength in bullion.

Markets Look to U.S. Data for Direction

Traders now await the JOLTS Job Openings and Consumer Confidence Index, both of which may influence Fed policy expectations. Upcoming speeches from Federal Open Market Committee officials will also be closely monitored for additional guidance. With fiscal risks and global tensions lingering, both gold and silver appear poised to retain their safe-haven status into the final quarter of the year.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold holds near $3,835 with support at $3,822; a break above $3,864 targets $3,895. Silver trades around $46.69, with resistance at $47.18 and support at $46.19.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $3,835 after pulling back from resistance around $3,864–$3,885, where Fibonacci extensions cluster. The rejection formed as RSI dropped from overbought levels near 70, signaling slowing momentum.

On the 2-hour chart, price still respects the rising trendline, with immediate support at $3,822 and deeper levels at $3,791 and $3,762. The 50-EMA at $3,786 continues to provide structural backing, while the 200-EMA at $3,688 sits as a broader safety net.

For bulls, a move back above $3,864 would open the path to $3,895 and $3,910, while failure to hold above $3,822 risks a deeper correction toward $3,791.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading around $46.69, consolidating after its recent climb. Price remains inside a rising channel but is testing the lower boundary near $46.70, a level that could decide short-term direction. Immediate resistance is at $47.18, while support sits at $46.19 and $45.73, near the 50-EMA.

The RSI has cooled to 56, showing momentum has eased from earlier highs, suggesting either a pause or a potential pullback.

A clear break above $47.18 could open the way toward $47.75 and $48.29, while a move below $46.70 risks a slide toward $45.73. For now, silver holds a bullish structure but momentum looks fragile.