Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Cut Bets Fuel Rally, Markets Eye Jobs Data

Market Overview

Gold advanced to fresh highs during Asian trading on Wednesday, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this month. The move reinforced gold’s position as the preferred safe-haven asset at a time of heightened political and trade uncertainty.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are assigning a probability of more than 90% for a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting, with at least two cuts anticipated before year-end.

Analysts note that the prospect of lower rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, providing a structural underpinning to its rally. “Policy easing has become the dominant driver for precious metals,” one strategist said, pointing to the combination of macro risks and easing liquidity conditions as a potent catalyst.

Silver Tracks Gold’s Upside

Silver also extended gains, reflecting spillover demand from gold’s surge. The metal touched new highs in Asian trading as investors sought defensive positioning.

Market participants attribute the rally to the same drivers fueling gold: expectations of Fed easing, geopolitical uncertainty, and stronger flows into defensive assets.

Political and Currency Backdrop

The broader political environment has added weight to safe-haven demand. Investors remain concerned about global trade frictions and the perceived erosion of central bank independence.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar has firmed against the British pound and Japanese yen, both pressured by fiscal and structural concerns. The stronger dollar has moderated upside momentum in gold, limiting near-term gains despite robust safe-haven inflows.

Focus Shifts to U.S. Labor Data

Attention now turns to U.S. employment figures that could shape expectations for the Fed’s path. The JOLTS Job Openings release is scheduled for later today, followed by the ADP employment report and ISM Services PMI.

The pivotal test will be Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which investors expect will determine whether the Fed proceeds with aggressive easing.

With rate expectations firmly in place, the trajectory for gold and silver remains tied to incoming macro data and the durability of geopolitical tensions shaping safe-haven flows.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold trades near $3,531, consolidating below $3,548 with support at $3,493, while silver holds $40.80, eyeing $40.97 resistance. Both metals remain supported by Fed cut expectations and safe-haven demand.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading around $3,531, consolidating just below its recent peak at $3,548. The chart shows a strong rally, with price moving well above both the 50-EMA ($3,367) and 200-EMA ($3,117), confirming bullish momentum. Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential support near $3,493 (23.6%) and $3,459 (38.2%), areas that could attract buyers if price pulls back.

The RSI at 74 signals overbought conditions, hinting at a pause or short-term correction. If gold holds above $3,493, it may retest $3,548, with an extension toward $3,592. A break below $3,459 would open the door to deeper support at $3,431. Overall, consolidation appears likely before another upward attempt.

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Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $40.80, holding inside an ascending channel that has guided price action through late August. The 50-EMA at $40.09 and 200-EMA at $38.90 are acting as strong support levels, showing the uptrend is intact. Resistance stands at $40.97, with a breakout opening the way toward $41.44.

On the downside, immediate support lies at $40.50, followed by $39.55 if momentum weakens. The RSI at 60 indicates moderate strength, easing from overbought territory but still supportive for buyers.

As long as silver holds above $40.50, the bias remains upward, with traders watching for a retest of $40.97 before targeting higher levels.