Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Rate Cut Bets Clash with Equity Market Rally

Market Overview

Gold came under selling pressure in early Asian trade as investors shifted toward equities, which continued their record-setting rally. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at all-time highs Wednesday, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced more than 1% on Thursday, marking fresh gains in global stocks.

Analysts say the surge in risk appetite has temporarily reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar registered a modest uptick, further weighing on bullion. Still, expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve have limited dollar gains. Market participants broadly anticipate a rate cut next week, which could indirectly support gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Fed Policy Outlook Supports Precious Metals

Recent U.S. economic data reinforced the case for looser policy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index slowed to 2.6% year-on-year in August, down from 3.3% in July.

Core PPI eased to 2.8% from 3.7%, underscoring weaker domestic demand. Traders now expect up to three 25-basis-point cuts before year-end, with a small probability of a larger move at the Fed’s September 17 meeting.

“Softening inflation pressures give the Fed room to cut rates more aggressively,” said one New York-based strategist, noting that dovish policy expectations remain a key support for gold prices.

Silver Tracks Gold Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Silver mirrored gold’s cautious tone, slipping modestly in early Thursday trade. Analysts say safe-haven demand for both metals remains underpinned by persistent geopolitical risks and global trade uncertainties.

Heightened tensions in Eastern Europe and trade-related frictions have reinforced the appeal of defensive assets, offsetting some of the pressure from strong equity markets.

Outlook: Inflation Data in Focus

Investors are expected to maintain a cautious stance ahead of Thursday’s U.S. CPI release, which will provide further clarity on the Fed’s policy path.

Analysts say the figures could determine whether the dollar strengthens further or retreats, setting the near-term direction for gold and silver.

For now, both metals remain caught between equity-driven headwinds and safe-haven support from economic and geopolitical risks.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold trades at $3,629, pressured by equity gains and dollar strength. A break below $3,620 risks $3,610, while silver near $41.04 eyes $40.95 support before potential rebound.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $3,629, slipping after repeated failures to break resistance around $3,649–$3,659. On the 1-hour chart, price action shows a descending triangle forming, with lower highs pressing against flat support near $3,620. A break below this level could expose further downside toward $3,610 and $3,598.

The 50-EMA at $3,635 is capping short-term rebounds, while the 200-EMA at $3,568 provides a longer-term safety net. Momentum is tilting bearish, with the RSI at 40 showing weakening demand without yet being oversold.

Unless gold reclaims $3,640, sellers are likely to remain in control, with risks skewed to the downside in the near term.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $41.04, holding within its ascending channel but showing early signs of fatigue. On the 1-hour chart, price is testing support around $40.95, with the 50-EMA at $41.10 acting as nearby resistance. A clean break below this support could drag prices toward $40.72 and $40.47, where stronger demand zones align with the channel floor.

The 200-EMA at $40.65 remains a key longer-term pivot. Momentum indicators lean cautious, with the RSI at 45 signaling weakening buying pressure.

If bulls can defend $40.95, silver may attempt a rebound toward $41.29 and $41.57, but failure here risks a deeper pullback within the channel.