The Week Ahead: U.S. Markets Eye Inflation, Labor Reports, and Fed Outlook

Market Overview

U.S. equities ended mixed last week as a rotation away from high-valuation tech stocks toward value and small caps gained traction following the Fed’s third consecutive rate cut.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.0% to 48,458, bringing its year-to-date gain to 13.9%. The S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 6,827, up 16.1% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.6% to 23,195, trimming its 2025 gain to 20.1%.

The Fed’s decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was widely expected, but Chair Powell’s commentary suggested the committee could pause further easing as it assesses the impact of prior moves on labor conditions. Market focus quickly shifted to this week’s data-heavy calendar, with traders eyeing the delayed November employment report and the November CPI for signs of continued disinflation.

AI-linked names such as Oracle and Broadcom weighed on tech sentiment, while rate-sensitive small caps and cyclicals outperformed. Falling Treasury yields and the Fed’s announcement of T-bill purchases provided a supportive backdrop for broader equity participation.

With the policy outlook turning more data-dependent, investors enter the final full trading week of 2025 focused on inflation, employment, and spending trends.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Dec 15
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Empire State Manufacturing Index, forecast 18.7 (prior 9.8)
• 15:00 GMT – NAHB Housing Market Index, forecast 38 (prior 39)
After the Close:
• No reports scheduled

Tuesday, Dec 16
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Core Retail Sales m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.2%)
• 13:30 GMT – Retail Sales m/m, forecast 0.2% (prior 0.2%)
• 13:30 GMT – Nonfarm Employment Change, forecast 50K (prior 119K)
• 13:30 GMT – Unemployment Rate, forecast 4.5% (prior 4.4%)
• 14:45 GMT – Flash Manufacturing PMI, forecast 52.2 (prior 52.3)
• 14:45 GMT – Flash Services PMI, forecast 54.1 (prior 54.0)
After the Close:
• Lennar (LEN), est. $2.21
• Worthington Enterprises (WOR), est. $0.70

Wednesday, Dec 17
Before the Open:
• ABM Industries (ABM), est. $1.09
• General Mills (GIS), est. $1.02
• Jabil (JBL), est. $2.70
• Toro (TTC), est. $0.88
Economic Releases:
• 15:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories, prior -1.8M
After the Close:
• Micron Technology (MU), est. $3.75
• MillerKnoll (MLKN), est. $0.41

Thursday, Dec 18
Before the Open:
• Birkenstock (BIRK), est. $0.36
• CarMax (KMX), est. $0.37
• Cintas (CTAS), est. $1.20
• Darden Restaurants (DRI), est. $2.11
• FactSet (FDS), est. $4.36
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – CPI m/m, forecast 0.3%
• 13:30 GMT – Core CPI m/m, forecast 0.2%
• 13:30 GMT – CPI y/y, forecast 3.0%
• 13:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims, forecast 236K (prior 224K)
• 13:30 GMT – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, forecast -1.7 (prior 3.2)
After the Close:
• FedEx (FDX), est. $4.08
• Nike (NKE), est. $0.37
• BlackBerry (BB), est. $0.04
• HEICO (HEI), est. $1.21
• KB Home (KBH), est. $1.79
• Mission Produce (AVO), est. $0.23

Friday, Dec 19
Before the Open:
• Conagra (CAG), est. $0.44
• Lamb Weston (LW), est. $0.63
• Paychex (PAYX), est. $1.23
• Winnebago (WGO), est. $0.13
Economic Releases:
• 15:00 GMT – Existing Home Sales, forecast 4.10M (prior 4.15M)
• 15:00 GMT – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, prior 53.3
• 15:00 GMT – Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, prior 4.1%

Central Bank Activity

Monday:
• 14:30 GMT – FOMC Member Williams (Vice Chair)
• 15:30 GMT – FOMC Member Miran (Governor)

Wednesday:
• 13:15 GMT – FOMC Member Waller (Governor)
• 14:05 GMT – FOMC Member Williams (Vice Chair)
• 17:30 GMT – FOMC Member Bostic (Atlanta Fed)

Fed commentary will be closely parsed for confirmation of a potential January pause. Any suggestion of further easing could bolster rate-sensitive sectors and pressure the dollar.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 48,458.06 (+1.05%), support at 45,728.93, 52-week SMA at 44,012.29, then 43,340.68, resistance at 48,886.86.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 23,195.17 (-1.62%), support at 21,898.29, 20,905.99, 52-week SMA at 20,300.22, then 19,334.98, resistance at 24,019.99.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,827.41 (-0.63%), support at 6,521.92, 6,212.69, 52-week SMA at 6,168.05, then 5,943.23, resistance at 6,920.34.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact uptrend.

Outlook

Traders enter the week focused on the delayed November employment report and Thursday’s CPI release, both critical for assessing whether the Fed’s policy easing can continue in early 2026.

A soft jobs print and moderate inflation would reinforce the case for rate stability, while any upside surprises could prompt a reassessment of the Fed’s pause narrative. With the Fed’s communication turning data-driven, volatility may rise into year-end as investors weigh economic data against recent sector rotation.

Corporate results could also steer sentiment, with Micron Technology (MU) expected to post another strong quarter on improving memory pricing tied to AI demand. FedEx (FDX) will be closely watched for signals on freight activity and cost control, both key indicators of business spending momentum. Meanwhile, Nike (NKE) reports amid questions over the pace of its sales recovery, which could influence consumer discretionary sentiment into year-end.

Overall, near-term market tone hinges on whether incoming data sustain confidence in disinflation and labor stability while earnings confirm a still-resilient corporate backdrop.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.