Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Rate Cut Decision Keeps Traders Cautious

Market Overview

Gold and silver traded steady on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut to 4%. The policy decision, alongside updates on U.S.–China trade negotiations, has kept traders cautious, while a modest rebound in the U.S. dollar added pressure on precious metals.

The dollar index (DXY) edged up 0.2%, making gold and silver slightly costlier for holders of other currencies. Analysts noted that bullion’s subdued tone reflects a rotation toward risk assets amid renewed trade optimism.

“The fuel for this short-term correction in gold is a readjustment of safe-haven instruments toward more responsive ones like global equities,” said Kelvin Wong, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA.

Fed Policy in Focus

Markets are bracing for a dovish tone from Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting remarks. While a rate cut is largely priced in, traders are watching for clues on December’s policy direction and any signal of slower tightening ahead.

Lower rates typically benefit non-yielding metals like gold and silver by reducing the opportunity cost of holding them.

A note from ANZ Bank stated, “Progress in U.S.–China trade talks continues to sap demand for haven assets such as gold. However, the recent pullback may provide an opportunity for central banks to ramp up purchases.”

Trade Developments and Market Sentiment

Officials from Washington and Beijing reportedly finalized a framework for review by both presidents, aiming to de-escalate trade tariffs and stabilize industrial supply chains.

This progress has lifted global risk sentiment, driving equities higher and diminishing short-term demand for safe-haven assets.

Outlook for Precious Metals

Despite near-term weakness, gold and silver remain underpinned by broader macroeconomic uncertainties and sustained central bank buying. Gold has gained roughly 52% year-to-date, peaking at $4,381 per ounce in mid-October.

Silver has followed suit, supported by its dual role as both a monetary and industrial metal, with stronger demand expected from electronics and renewable energy sectors heading into 2025.

Both metals now hinge on how the Fed’s message shapes global liquidity expectations, setting the tone for the next leg of the commodities rally.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold trades near $3,971, consolidating below resistance at $4,010, while silver holds around $47.73, eyeing a breakout above $47.90 as traders await the Fed’s rate cut signal.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $3,971, attempting to stabilize after rebounding from the $3,887 support area. The 4-hour chart shows price consolidating below the 50-EMA at $4,069, while the 200-EMA around $3,943 is acting as a short-term floor. The RSI remains below 45, suggesting limited buying momentum for now.

A sustained move above $4,010 could open room toward $4,145, whereas failure to hold above $3,940 risks another drop toward $3,885 or $3,791. The recent candle structure shows indecision, with small-bodied candles signaling hesitation ahead of the upcoming Fed decision.

For now, gold remains range-bound, with traders watching $4,010 as the key breakout point to confirm a potential recovery.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $47.73, showing signs of recovery after bouncing off support at $45.57. The 4-hour chart highlights a breakout attempt from the descending channel, with prices testing the 200-EMA at $47.26 while staying below the 50-EMA near $48.65.

The RSI has rebounded from oversold levels and is now around 48, suggesting improving momentum. A confirmed close above $47.90 could open the way toward $49.48 and $51.51, while failure to hold above $47.20 may lead to a retest of $46.00.

The structure hints at a potential short-term reversal, but bulls need a sustained breakout to confirm a shift in trend heading into November.