Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Split Clouds Outlook as Metals Stall in Tight Range

Market Overview

Gold and silver weakened in early European trading as a modest recovery in the US Dollar interrupted their two-day advance. The metals slipped as broader risk sentiment improved, prompting investors to rotate selectively out of defensive assets.

After falling to multi-week lows, the dollar has begun to stabilize, reducing immediate demand for non-interest-bearing commodities such as gold and silver.

Fed Policy Split Clouds the Rate Path

The Federal Reserve remains the key driver of near-term direction. The central bank delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut at its latest meeting but signaled only one additional reduction in 2026—far fewer than markets had hoped for. Chair Jerome Powell cited “downside risks to the labor market” and stressed the need to avoid policy moves that could hinder job growth.

However, dissent from two committee members highlighted a rare divide inside the Fed, prompting traders to reassess expectations for further easing. Futures pricing now reflects reduced odds of additional cuts, limiting the upside for precious metals even as real yields continue to drift lower.

Geopolitical Tensions Sustain Safe-Haven Interest

Despite stronger risk appetite, geopolitical tensions continue to provide a structural layer of support. Recent drone activity in the Black Sea disrupted vessels linked to regional energy transport, renewing concerns over supply routes and maritime security. Analysts note that “persistent geopolitical ambiguity is preventing deeper pullbacks,” as investors maintain partial hedges.

Upcoming US Data to Set the Tone

Attention now turns to US Initial Jobless Claims and Trade Balance data, both key indicators for assessing economic momentum. Signs of cooling labor demand or trade-related weakness could reinvigorate expectations for Fed easing—an outcome typically favorable for gold and silver.

With policy signals still mixed and geopolitical uncertainty simmering, precious metals remain highly sensitive to shifts in macro sentiment heading into the next trading sessions.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is likely to consolidate between $4,204–$4,264 as traders await US data. Silver may hold within its channel near $62.06, with $62.91 resistance limiting upside until momentum strengthens.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $4,214, holding above the rising trendline that has supported the broader uptrend since late November. Recent candles continue to react around $4,204, where buyers stepped in earlier, confirming this area as short-term support. Price remains above the 200-EMA, while the 20-EMA is flattening, signaling slower momentum but no breakdown.

A move toward $4,264 remains in play if gold closes above nearby resistance, as this level capped several attempts earlier in the week. If sellers push price below the trendline, downside targets sit at $4,180 and $4,169, both key reaction zones on the chart.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $62.06, holding within a strong ascending channel that has guided the uptrend for nearly four weeks. Recent candles show rejection just under $62.91, the mid-channel resistance, where upper wicks indicate sellers stepping in after sharp intraday gains.

Price remains well above the 20-EMA and 200-EMA, confirming firm underlying momentum.

If silver pushes above $62.91, the next target aligns with the channel’s upper boundary near $64.50. A pullback remains possible, with first support at $60.11, followed by $58.63, both key reaction zones visible on prior swings.