Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Below $3,343 While Silver Eyes $37

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) struggled for momentum during Monday’s Asian trading session, trading near $3,313 after declining for three consecutive sessions. The yellow metal remains under pressure as traders assess the Federal Reserve’s shifting interest rate narrative and brace for high-stakes trade talks between the U.S. and China in London.

Silver (XAG/USD), meanwhile, hovered around $36.07, showing relative resilience despite similar headwinds. While both metals face pressure from elevated U.S. Treasury yields, a weaker U.S. Dollar and safe-haven flows continue to provide underlying support.

Labor Market Data Dampens Rate Cut Prospects

Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report offered a nuanced picture of economic strength. The U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs in May—surpassing the 130,000 forecast—though down from April’s revised figure. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing expectations of 3.7%.

These indicators reaffirm the Fed’s cautious stance. With core inflation still above target, the odds of multiple rate cuts in 2025 have diminished. CME FedWatch data now indicates a 36% probability of a cut at the September meeting, down from 52% last week. Consequently, benchmark Treasury yields remained firm, weighing on non-interest-bearing assets, such as gold.

Weaker Dollar and Global Risks Offer Near-Term Support

Despite headwinds from rates and yields, Gold found modest support from a broadly softer U.S. Dollar. The Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below 104.2 on Monday, as concerns over the U.S. fiscal position and rising debt loads eroded investor confidence.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks—particularly tensions in Eastern Europe and a lack of global diplomatic progress—continue to elevate demand for safe-haven assets. Silver, which benefits from both industrial and safe-haven demand, remains supported above key technical levels, buoyed by expectations of strong physical demand in Asia.

Investors now look ahead to U.S.-China trade negotiations, which could sway sentiment. While immediate Fed easing looks unlikely, macro and geopolitical uncertainty may help Gold and Silver retain a bid in the sessions ahead.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains under pressure below $3,343 as traders await signals from the Fed and trade talks. Silver remains bullish above $35.88, eyeing the $37.03 resistance level with momentum still favoring buyers.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is attempting a recovery from the $3,309 support level after a sharp decline, now trading near $3,324. The 2-hour chart shows a rebound above the 200 EMA ($3,319), indicating that buyers are attempting to regain control.

However, the price still trades below the 50 EMA ($3,343), which now acts as immediate resistance. A sustained move above $3,337 is needed to confirm a shift in momentum.

Failure to clear this zone could lead to another retest of the $3,309 and trendline support around $3,287. The structure remains mixed, with buyers defending support, but the overall trend direction hinges on whether gold can reclaim the 50-day EMA.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) continues its sharp rally, now trading around $36.29 after clearing the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $35.88. The breakout confirms strong bullish momentum, supported by consecutive large green candles on the daily chart.

With price decisively above the 50-day EMA at $33.26, buyers are firmly in control. The next key resistance is the 100% Fib extension at $37.03, followed by $37.78 and $38.51 if momentum continues.

On the downside, immediate support lies at $35.88 and $34.98. As long as silver holds above $35.88, the bias remains upward; however, traders should watch for potential exhaustion as the price approaches multi-month highs.