Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Slips Below $4,600, Silver Finds Support

Market Overview

Gold price (XAU/USD) failed to extend its upward momentum and slipped below the $4,600 level. However, the renewed downward pressure was mainly driven by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the coming months.

In contrast to this, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and broader economic uncertainties may help limit further losses in gold. Looking ahead, traders are closely monitoring the US Initial Jobless Claims report, scheduled for release later on Thursday.

Gold Prices Under Pressure Amid Strong US Economic Data and Fed Rate Pause Expectations

As we mentioned, the gold price is under pressure as investors increasingly believe that the US central bank will keep interest rates unchanged for the next several months. This expectation has reduced demand for the precious metal and is one of the key reasons behind its recent weakness.

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Unemployment Rate edged down to 4.4% in December, showing the labor market remains strong. In addition, data released on Wednesday showed that US producer prices rose slightly in November, while Retail Sales increased more than expected.

These signs of a resilient economy reduce the need for immediate rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which continues to weigh on gold prices.

Gold Faces Pressure Ahead of US Jobless Claims Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Rate Expectations

Moving ahead, traders remain cautious ahead of the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims report due later on Thursday, which is expected to show claims rising to 215K, up from the previous 208K, reflecting a slight increase in jobless filings. Hence, the rising jobless claims usually signal a slightly weaker labor market, which can weaken the dollar slightly.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions are helping to limit deeper losses in the precious metal. The situation between the US and Iran has worsened after President Trump warned of possible action following a violent crackdown on protesters. The US has sent military forces, while Iran warned nearby countries not to support any attack. Trump also canceled meetings with Iranian officials, raising fears of more conflict.

Moreover, the ongoing worries about the Federal Reserve’s independence are also boosting uncertainty in the market. These issues are keeping people interested in gold, even though prices are under some short-term pressure. Gold demand remains steady despite these challenges.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,603 after consolidating inside a rising price channel on the 4H chart. The precious metal is printing mixed candles with smaller candles near $4,640–$4,695 range. Gold’s price got rejected near the upper resistance zone but remains above the rising trendline and 50-period EMA, keeping the short-term structure constructive despite recent hesitation.

The mid-channel area aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, acting as dynamic support for the precious metal. Immediate support sits at $4,571, which is followed by $4,520, where the rising lower trendline comes into play

The leading indicator, RSI, has eased from near 70 toward the mid-50s, signaling cooling momentum rather than a full trend reversal. From a trading perspective, a buy near $4,570 opens the door toward $4,690, with a stop placed below $4,520.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $89.10 after a sharp pullback from $93.35, where price briefly tested the upper boundary of a rising channel and met strong resistance. The latest candles show a strong bearish rejection followed by smaller-bodied candles, suggesting stabilization near current levels.

The price of XAGUSD remains inside an upward channel, however, the recent advance stalled near the upper boundary. Silver is likely to face immediate support near $86.50, which is aligned with the rising lower trendline and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement mark.

The leading technical indicator, RSI, has cooled from overbought levels toward 55, pointing to momentum reset rather than trend damage. The trade idea to buy near $86.50, target $92.50, stop below $84.80.