Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Khamenei Killing Ignites $5,393 Gold Gap – Will Silver Hit $100 Today?

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) started the new week on a strong bullish note, edged higher above the $5,300 level and hitting an intraday high near $5,393. However, the rally was mainly supported by rising geopolitical tensions and growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve may cut interest rates.

Gold Surges as Middle East Tensions Escalate Sharply

Gold gained strong upward momentum after a dramatic escalation in geopolitical tensions throughout West Asia over the weekend. The US and Israel reportedly launched strikes on Iran, resulting in the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In the meantime, the situation intensified further after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it was stopping ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a very important global shipping route.

This development has raised fears of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and as a result, investors rushed toward traditional safe-haven assets like Gold.

Gold Finds Support as Uncertainty Grows and Fed Cut Hopes Rise

Another major factor supporting Gold is growing speculation that the US Federal Reserve could move toward additional interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US dollar has lost some ground from its highest level since late January, offering additional support for Gold prices.

Moving ahead, traders are hesitant to place aggressive bearish bets on Gold ahead of  series of major US economic releases scheduled for the start of the new month. Market attention turns to economic data this week, starting with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed by Wednesday’s ADP private-sector jobs report and ISM Services PMI.

Gold Technical Outlook: $5,393 Resistance in Focus as Channel Holds Firm

Gold is trading around $5,377 on the 2-hour chart after bouncing strongly from the $5,304 support zone, which has become a key demand area. The price is still moving within the rising channel, making higher highs and higher lows.

Recent bullish candles show strong rejection below $5,320, which confirms buyers are active near the middle of the channel. The next resistance is at $5,393, with further levels at $5,444 and $5,495.

The 50-period EMA is rising near $5,173, and the 100-period EMA is lower at about $5,093. Both support the current uptrend. The RSI is above 60, showing steady momentum without signs of overextension.

Trade idea: Consider buying above $5,395 with a target of $5,444 and a stop below $5,304.

Silver Technical Outlook: $92 Breakout Signals Momentum Toward $100

Silver is trading around $94.92 on the 2-hour chart after moving above the $92.21 resistance zone, which had held prices back before. This breakout confirms the ongoing uptrend that started in mid-February.

Recent bullish candles show steady gains above $92, suggesting buyers are supporting higher prices instead of selling into strength.

The 50-period EMA is moving up near $90, and the 100-period EMA is lower at about $85, which supports the bullish outlook. The next resistance is at $98.54, with further levels at $101.54 and $105.03. The RSI is above 60, showing strong momentum without overbought signals.

Trade idea: Consider buying above $95 with a target of $98.50 and a stop below $92.20.