Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: NFP Could Trigger $5,150 Test

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) is gaining strength again, reaching an intraday high of $5,063 on Wednesday. Currently, spot gold trades near $5,059, up about 0.69%. The rise is mainly due to a weaker US Dollar and increased focus on Federal Reserve policy changes.

Weak Retail Data Fuels Rate Cut Bets

The main reason for the current rally is the weak US Retail Sales report. In December, sales did not grow (0.0%), falling short of the expected 0.4% increase. Along with a 0.1% drop in the GDP control group, this shows US consumer demand is slowing more than expected.

As a result, markets now see a higher chance of several interest rate cuts in 2026, which makes non-yielding assets like gold and silver more attractive.

The “Warsh Factor” and Fed Independence

Gold is also getting a boost from political risks. Tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve have come up again after reports that President Trump was frustrated with his Fed Chair nominee, Kevin Warsh.

There is also speculation about possible legal pressure on the Fed to lower rates, raising concerns about the central bank’s independence.

Fed Governor Stephan Miran recently said that a central bank can never be “fully independent” from politics. His comments have added to doubts about the Dollar’s credibility as a neutral reserve currency.

Silver Outperforms as Momentum Returns

Silver (XAG/USD) is outperforming other precious metals today, trading at $82.18, up 1.72%. Although silver is still about 30% below its record January high of $121, it is gaining from both strong industrial demand and investors moving away from the US Dollar.

Looking ahead, investors are waiting for today’s delayed Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. If the jobs data is weak, it could be the final push that sends gold toward the $5,150 resistance level.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Stabilizes Above $5,000 as Fib Support Holds

Gold is trading around $5,056 on the 4-hour chart, staying above the key $5,000 level after bouncing from the $4,540 low. The price is within the 0.382 ($4,854) to 0.618 ($5,138) Fibonacci retracement zone, which suggests a steady recovery instead of a full reversal.

Recent candlesticks have tight bodies and small pullbacks, showing steady demand near $4,996, where the 50-period moving average acts as support. A downward trendline from the $5,598 high is still present, keeping pressure near the $5,138 resistance. If price breaks above $5,138, it could move toward $5,303. If it falls below $4,855, attention may turn back to $4,680.

Trade idea: Consider buying if price moves above $5,140, with a stop below $4,855 and a target of $5,300.

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Compresses Near $82 as Triangle Break Looms

Silver is trading around $82.22 on the 4-hour chart, moving between a downward trendline from the $108.34 high and an upward trendline from the $64.14 low. This pattern looks like a contracting triangle, with price staying just above support at $79.81.

Recent candlesticks have small bodies and short wicks, which suggests lower volatility before a possible breakout. The 50-period moving average near $84.00 is flat, and the 100-period moving average around $80.00 is acting as support. If price moves above $84.00, it could reach $92.14. If it falls below $79.80, it may head toward $72.00.

Trade idea: Consider buying if price moves above $84.00, with a stop below $79.80 and a target of $92.00.