Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Price Stalls Below Resistance Ahead of ADP, NFP

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) traded near $3,335 on Wednesday, hovering just below a one-week high, as investors balanced risk sentiment against currency market dynamics. The yellow metal’s recent recovery has stalled amid a modest rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which edged up from its 29-month low reached earlier this week. As of Wednesday morning, the DXY was up 0.2%, pressuring dollar-denominated assets like gold.

“Gold is consolidating as markets weigh whether Fed policymakers are nearing a pivot,” said a senior analyst at Phillip Nova. “The next move hinges on jobs data and the Fed’s rate outlook.”

Despite the dollar’s bounce, gold remains underpinned by expectations of monetary easing. Markets are pricing in a 23% chance of a July interest rate cut and a 75% probability of easing by September, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

Fed Commentary and Economic Data Shape Market Sentiment

Recent remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested the central bank might have already begun rate cuts if not for ongoing uncertainty in trade and inflation projections. Meanwhile, U.S. economic indicators continue to show mixed signals.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI contracted for the fourth straight month, and job openings rose to 7.769 million in May, slightly above estimates. While this eases labor market concerns, it does little to shift recession anxieties, leaving investors cautious ahead of this week’s ADP and NFP reports.

Silver Supported by Weaker Dollar, Trades Near $36

Silver (XAG/USD) extended its sideways consolidation, trading at $36.04. As trade tensions and central bank policy uncertainty mount, both gold and silver continue to attract interest as portfolio stabilizers. However, upcoming U.S. labor data will be critical in determining whether precious metals can sustain recent gains or resume their broader consolidation patterns.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold trades below $3,358 while silver hovers near $36.04. Fed commentary, rate expectations, and labor data weigh on market sentiment.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $3,335 after a sharp rebound from the $3,260 region. Price recently broke out of a descending trendline and retested the $3,328–$3,330 support zone, now acting as a pivot area.

The 50-period EMA is rising, and price remains above both the 50-EMA and the broken trendline—suggesting a constructive bullish setup. However, the rally has stalled just below the $3,358 resistance, a level that triggered previous rejections.

If buyers reclaim $3,358, the next upside targets are $3,393 and $3,422. A failure to hold above $3,328 could drag gold back toward $3,304. Price action favors the bulls while holding above the EMA cluster.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is hovering around $36.04 after a modest decline, holding just above the 200-period EMA near $35.95. The price has remained rangebound between $35.93 and $36.81 over the past week, with multiple intraday wicks signaling hesitation among buyers and sellers.

Both the 50-EMA and 200-EMA are flattening, reinforcing a neutral tone in the short term. A decisive break below $35.93 could trigger a retest of $35.41 and the ascending trendline from early June.

On the upside, a push above $36.81 would be needed to open the path to $37.31. Until then, silver remains in a holding pattern, awaiting fresh direction.