Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Safe-Haven Flows Offset Thin Liquidity

Market Overview

Gold is trading around $4,509 even though markets are thin because people are taking the week off. It’s definitely a sign of strong demand, which is surprising given how little trading there was going on.

People are putting their money into safe investments like gold and silver because of rising conflicts all over the world and a weaker US dollar. All these factors are making gold and silver prices go up, which is really attracting investors right now.

Geopolitical Tensions Drive Safe-Haven Demand

Geopolitics are playing a huge role in all this – the situation is developing, and gold has seen safe-haven inflows due to the US ratcheting up the pressure on Venezuela’s oil exports. That’s raised concerns about potential supply disruptions and the instability that could follow.

Adding to that, former President Donald Trump’s latest social media post has just confirmed that US forces have been carrying out strikes in Nigeria. That has shown that the US is prepared to get involved in various parts of the world with military action.

US Dollar Weakness and Fed Expectations Support Precious Metals

Domestically, the US dollar is coming under pressure. Expectations that the Federal Reserve might start easing up on interest rates as inflation cools and economic growth slows down is all part of it. With a softer dollar, gold and silver become more attractive to international buyers because they are cheaper. This is boosting demand for gold and silver.

People who trade gold need to keep an eye on US economic developments, what the Fed is saying, and the ongoing geopolitical situation, because all these factors will probably influence near-term price movements.

Short-Term Forecast

Over the short term, gold might just consolidate between $4,480 and $4,575 before picking up again, while silver just takes a breather at $74-$75.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading right now at $4,512. It’s still moving up inside a well-defined ascending channel on the 2-hour chart. Recent price movements show a clear upward trend with smaller dips, which suggests that buyers are still defending their gains rather than rushing to sell any profits. Its price remains above the 50 Day EMA near $4,430, which is helping keep the short-term momentum going in a positive direction.

The channel that’s been guiding the trend for gold is still in place, and the mid-point is acting as a support line during any dips. The first bit of resistance we see is around $4,525-$4,535, then the upper channel near $4,575. On the downside, $4,477 is key support, then $4,430, which you could say is the old consolidation zone.

The RSI is easing towards the mid-60s, which shows that momentum is cooling down a bit but hasn’t broken down yet. Our trade idea is to buy any dips near $4,480, with a stop-loss below $4,430 and a target of $4,575.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is right now trading at $74.70 on the 2-hour chart, after a really strong rally upwards but now it’s just pausing near the top of its rising channel. Recent price movements have shown a small body with a long upper wick around $75.00-$75.40, signalling a bit of hesitation rather than a real sell-off. The overall structure is still pretty positive, and the price is still holding up well above the 50 day EMA near $70.00, which is acting as a trend supporter.

The channel that has been guiding the price higher in silver since the middle of the month is still in place, and any dips have been respecting the mid-point of that channel. The first bit of resistance we see is around $75.40, then $76.90, then the upper channel near $78.80. On the downside, first support is at $72.65, then $70.05, which is the old consolidation zone.

The RSI is hovering in the high-60s, showing really strong momentum but cooling down from overbought levels. Our trade idea is to buy any dips near $72.70, with a stop-loss below $70.00 and a target of $76.90.