Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 12, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

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Published: Aug 11, 2015, 11:27 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Copper dipped 54 points after China let the yuan tumble in the open markets. Copper is trading at 2.346 while Palladium

Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 12, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

Analysis and Recommendations:

Copper dipped 54 points after China let the yuan tumble in the open markets. Copper is trading at 2.346 while Palladium added over $11 to 617.40. Analysts do not expect China’s yuan devaluation move to bolster metals value in the medium to long term, as this would have to be followed by a wider round of global devaluation race between currencies.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart had said on Monday that a decision to raise rates should come soon. He said he was “very disposed’’ to a rate increase at the September policy meeting, but stressed that subsequent increases should be gradual.

Investors have cut their exposure to non-interest-bearing bullion and raised their bets on the dollar on expectations that the Fed would lift rates this year for the first time since 2006. The metal lost nearly 7 per cent in July, when it also touched it’s cheapest since 2010 at $1,077.

Spot platinum rose 1.2 per cent to $992.24 an ounce and palladium gained 2.2 per cent to $621. Silver was up 0.6 per cent at $15.34 an ounce.

Manufacturers in Germany, the third-largest copper consumer, may have been hurt by a prolonged Greek debt crisis and a slowdown in China, a report showed Friday. All six main industrial metals are in bear markets as slowing global growth is threatening demand at a time when supplies are plentiful.

“The market is going through a bad patch,” Andrew Silver, a broker at Triland Metals Ltd., a London-based brokerage, said by telephone. “It’s a classic bear market. This is not a good sector at the moment. It’s very hard at the moment to find anything to give anyone an encouragement to buy any more metal than they absolutely need.”

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jul)	1.2%	1.0%	1.8%
CNY	New Loans	1,480.0B	725.0B	1,280.0B
AUD	NAB Business Confidence (Jul)	4	11	8
EUR	German ZEW Current Conditions	65.7	64.3	63.9
EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	25.0	32.0	29.7
EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	47.6	43.9	42.7

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-2.400M
JPY	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
AUD	Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)		0.6%	0.5%
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)		0.8%	0.8%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index		0.1%	-0.7%
CNY	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jul)		11.5%	11.4%
CNY	Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)		6.6%	6.8%
GBP	Claimant Count Change (Jul)		1.5K	7.0K
GBP	Unemployment Rate (Jun)		5.6%	5.6%
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)		-0.2%	-0.4%
USD	JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)		5.300M	5.363M
USD	Crude Oil Inventories			-4.407M
USD	Federal Budget Balance (Jul)		-132.0B	51.8B