Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 13, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

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Published: Aug 12, 2015, 12:41 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Copper continued to decline as Chinese economic problems weighed on the global commodities markets primarily base and

Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 13, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

Analysis and Recommendations:

Copper continued to decline as Chinese economic problems weighed on the global commodities markets primarily base and industrial metals. Copper is down 7 points to 2.325 while Palladium added $4.95 to 604.20. he base metals sell-off continued on Wednesday morning on the LME as China devalued its currency for the second day in a row, with copper, aluminum and nickel diving to levels last seen some six years ago.

Copper slumped under $5,100 per tonne for the first time since July 2009, to a session low of $5,062. It was last at $5,117, down $8 on the previous day’s close. Volumes are robust with more than 17,000 lots having changed hands on Select so far.

“Weakened Chinese yuan trims international buying power, demand outlook and in turn global economic growth prospects as markets price in (a) new reference rate,” a trader said.

China devalued its currency for the second time in two days today by 1.6 percent in an attempt to increase global competitiveness to drive exports. Trade data released over the weekend showed China’s exports falling 8.3 percent in July from the year earlier.

The move followed yesterday’s cutting of the reference rate by 1.9 percent – the biggest one day fall since 1994. Poor data from China did little to lift sentiment. Chinese industrial production growth was at six percent, while fixed asset investment growth came in at 11.2 percent.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual		Forecast	Previous
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	-0.847M	-1.800M		-2.400M
JPY	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Aug)	7.8%			-3.2%
AUD	Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)	0.6%	0.6%		0.5%
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)	1.1%	0.8%		0.8%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index	0.3%	0.1%		-0.7%
CNY	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jul)	11.2%	11.5%		11.4%
CNY	Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)	6.0%	6.6%		6.8%
GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jun)	2.4%	2.8%		3.2%
GBP	Claimant Count Change (Jul)	-4.9K	1.5K		0.2K
GBP	Unemployment Rate (Jun)	5.6%	5.6%		5.6%
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)	-0.4%	-0.2%		-0.4%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, August 14, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Core Retail Sales (QoQ)		0.7%	2.9%
EUR	German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)		0.5%	0.3%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)		1.0%	1.0%
EUR	CPI (MoM) (Jul)		-0.6%	0.0%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q2)		0.4%	0.4%
USD	PPI (MoM) (Jul)		0.1%	0.4%
CAD	Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jun)		2.1%	0.1%
USD	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)		0.3%	0.3%
USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug)		93.5	93.1