Analysis and Recommendations: Copper dipped 28 points to trade at 2.14 its lowest price in 2015 while Palladium added $5.55 as traders bought up the cheap
Copper dipped 28 points to trade at 2.14 its lowest price in 2015 while Palladium added $5.55 as traders bought up the cheap commodity. Copper prices have slid to a six-year low as worries about economic and demand growth in top consumer China escalates and abundant supplies reinforce expectations of surpluses.
But it is down more than three per cent so far this week and heading for its largest loss since September.
‘We’re seeing short-selling largely on the back of negative news flow out of China, where the economy is still not showing signs of stabilizing,’ Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar said.
‘We’ve not had enough production cutbacks to rebalance the market, so a further fall in the price should act as a necessary incentive in an oversupplied market to force more output cuts.’
Data last week showed China’s industrial output was at a seven-month low in October and investment expanded at its weakest pace since 2000. ‘Base metals appear to be pricing in a ‘hard landing’ of the Chinese economy again,’ Commerzbank said in a note.
‘Prices have fallen too sharply and no longer reflect the fundamental picture on the metals markets. We therefore see considerable recovery potential for prices.’
However, one thing that could trigger another attempt at the downside is a higher US currency, which makes US dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for non-US firms.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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NZD |
Core Retail Sales (QoQ) |
1.0% |
1.4% |
0.0% |
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NZD |
Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3) |
1.6% |
1.3% |
0.1% |
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JPY |
GDP (YoY) (Q3) |
-0.8% |
-0.2% |
-1.2% |
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JPY |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
-0.2% |
-0.1% |
-0.3% |
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EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) |
1.1% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
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EUR |
CPI (MoM) (Oct) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
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EUR |
CPI (YoY) (Oct) |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
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EUR |
ECB President Draghi Speaks |
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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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GBP |
CPI (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.1% |
-0.1% |
||
GBP |
CPI (YoY) (Oct) |
|
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
||
GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.2% |
0.6% |
||
EUR |
German ZEW Current Conditions |
|
55.5 |
55.2 |
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EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
|
6.0 |
1.9 |
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USD |
Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) |
|
1.9% |
1.9% |
||
USD |
Core CPI (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
||
USD |
CPI (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.2% |
-0.2% |
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USD |
Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.1% |
-0.2% |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz
Nov 18 11:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction
Nov 18 11:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction
Nov 18 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov
Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov
Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023
Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%
Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032
Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction
Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov
Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs
Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction
Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov
Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL
Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction
Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei
Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund
Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction
Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction
Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus