Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis November 24, 2015 – Forecast – Copper & Palladium

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Published: Nov 23, 2015, 12:31 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Copper held tight to the $2 price after falling 45 points and could possibly break the psychological $2 level. Palladium

Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis November 24, 2015 – Forecast – Copper & Palladium

Analysis and Recommendations:

Copper held tight to the $2 price after falling 45 points and could possibly break the psychological $2 level. Palladium fell $8.60 to 550.60. he International Copper Study Group, an industry association, said the global copper market reached a supply surplus of 81,000 metric tons in August, and a 69,000 metric ton surplus for the January-to-August period. Even with copper prices reeling from their biggest rout in six years, there were few signs at China’s biggest copper conference of manufacturers being tempted back to buy more of the metal. China will lower lending rates for loans made under the standing lending facility (SLF), a policy tool to inject cash into the banking system, in the latest step to support the slowing economy. The overnight rate would be cut to 2.75 percent and the seven-day rate to 3.25 percent, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said. Poor US housing starts data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce increased the pressure on copper prices.

US dollar reversed to a bid tone this morning in Asia from overnight consolidation, while EUR, JPY and commodity currencies gave back Friday’s gains. Commodities also slipped under renewed selling interests led by copper.

Copper and metals have been the biggest losers among major commodities as Chinese smelters issued a joint statement for a 500,000 metric tons curtail of output in 2016. It shred 2 percent on COMEX and 3.3 percent on Shanghai Future Exchange. The slump thus put downward pressure on the Australian dollar, which has lost 0.9 percent so far. On London Metal Exchange, copper slid below 2009 low while nickel reached the lowest since 2003.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Japan – Labour Thanksgiving Day
EUR	German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)	52.6	52.0	52.1
EUR	German Services PMI (Nov)	55.6	54.3	54.5
EUR	Manufacturing PMI (Nov)	52.8	52.3	52.3
EUR	Markit Composite PMI (Nov)	54.4	53.9	53.9
EUR	Services PMI (Nov)	54.6	54.1	54.1
EUR	German Buba President Weidmann

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
EUR	German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		0.3%	0.3%
EUR	German GDP (YoY) (Q3)		1.8%	1.8%
EUR	German Business Expectations (Nov)		104.0	103.8
EUR	German Current Assessment (Nov)		112.4	112.6
EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index (		108.2	108.2
USD	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		2.0%	1.5%
USD	GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3)		1.2%	1.2%
USD	Goods Trade Balance (Oct)			-58.63B
USD	S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a.		5.2%	5.1%
USD	CB Consumer Confidence (Nov)		99.5	97.6