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Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis May 1, 2014 Forecast – Silver & Copper
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Analysis and Recommendations: Silver dipped by 133 points to trade at 19.405 while Copper recovered and gained 3 points to trade at 3.076. The short term
Silver dipped by 133 points to trade at 19.405 while Copper recovered and gained 3 points to trade at 3.076. The short term outlook for China commodity imports remains weak for both commodity demand and imports, according to Barclays.
The stock building boost to imports of commodities like crude oil and copper continued to fade, Barclays noted. There were some signs of underlying strength, especially in demand for transport fuels and some precious metals.Despite the improved outlook for China economy in the second quarter, the import, demand scenario remains weak. China’s oil demand improved modestly after falling 2.8% y/y in Jan-Feb. The March total was up 0.6%, supported mainly by strong gasoline and jet fuel demand, both up by around 15% y/y.
In base metals there were marked contractions in imports of raw materials from Indonesia, reflecting the impact of an export ban on metal ores. Nickel ore imports from Indonesia fell 59% y/y, whilst bauxite imports from the same destination fell 60% y/y. Barclays has retained its H2 2014 forecast for copper prices at $7000 per ton while it has lowered its Q2 forcast marked to market at $6900/ton from $7,300 per ton earlier. Barclays meeting with industry stakeholders in China showed that supply cuts are mounting and total disruptions for Year-to-date (YTD) rising to 270Kt.
Copper supplies are growing but industry fundamentals but industry fundamentals do not warrant prices trading into the cost curve. “The copper market does not need to signal to producers to cut production and investment in future supply, fundamentals are balanced and stocks are comparatively low.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data April 30, 2014 actual v. forecast
|
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
|
NZD |
Building Consents (MoM) |
8.3% |
2.0% |
-1.6% |
|
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.5% |
-2.3% |
|
|
NZD |
ANZ Business Confidence |
64.8% |
|
67.3% |
|
|
AUD |
Private Sector Credit (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
|
EUR |
German Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.7% |
-0.7% |
0.4% |
|
|
JPY |
BoJ Press Conference |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
French Consumer Spending (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
|
EUR |
Spanish GDP (QoQ) |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
|
|
EUR |
Spanish HICP (YoY) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
-0.2% |
|
|
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
-25K |
-10K |
-14K |
|
|
EUR |
German Unemployment Rate |
6.7% |
6.7% |
6.7% |
|
|
EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.0% |
1.0% |
0.7% |
|
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
0.7% |
0.8% |
0.5% |
|
|
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
|
210K |
191K |
|
|
CAD |
GDP (MoM) |
|
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
|
USD |
Employment Cost Index (QoQ) |
|
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
|
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
|
1.2% |
2.6% |
|
|
USD |
Chicago PMI |
|
56.7 |
55.9 |
|
|
USD |
FOMC Statement |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
Interest Rate Decision |
|
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the EUR, GBP, CAD and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
May 01 |
CNY |
50.3 |
||
|
|
GBP |
0.7% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
GBP |
10.0% |
9.5% |
|
|
|
GBP |
55.3 |
55.3 |
|
|
|
USD |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
USD |
0.6% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
USD |
54.0 |
53.7 |
|
|
|
USD |
53.0 |
51.1 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
May 05 09:00 Norway
May 06 09:15 Austria
May 06 14:30 UK
May 06 17:00 US
May 07 09:03 Sweden
May 07 09:30 Germany
May 07 09:30 UK
May 07 15:30 Italy
May 07 17:00 US
May 08 00:30 Japan
May 08 08:30 Spain
May 08 09:00 Ireland
May 08 10:00 Norway
May 08 15:30 Italy
May 08 17:00 US
May 08 09:03 Sweden
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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