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Barry Norman
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Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 14, 2014 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver gained 159 points after a positive release of Chinese trade balance in the early morning which saw imports and exports grow. Copper added 10 points climbing from its rut to trade at 3.045. Silver has been steadily losing ground since its all-time high in April 2011, but what happened last month is particularly interesting: a very strong support line at 18.780 that was a clear bottom for the commodity for more than a year was broken.

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Copper rose in London, pacing gains by industrial metals, after trade figures from leading onsumer China exceeded estimates.

Exports climbed 15 percent from a year earlier last month, Chinese customs figures showed, beating the 12 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Imports, projected to drop, gained 7 percent. Prices also advanced after Premier Li Keqiang held to a forecast for Chinese economic growth this year in line with the official 7.5 percent target.

“Better-than-expected Chinese data may provide some respite in the short term,” William Adams, head of research at Fastmarkets.com in London, said in a note today. Nickel slumped for a fifth week last week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

Holiday

Japan – Health-Sports Day

 

 

Holiday

Canada – Thanksgiving Day

 

  CNY

 

Exports (YoY) (Sep)

15.3%

11.8%

9.4%

 

 

  CNY

 

Imports (YoY) (Sep)

7.0%

-2.7%

-2.4%

 

 

  CNY

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

31.00B

41.00B

49.83B

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

RBA Asst Gov. Debelle

 

 

 

 

 

  CNY

New Loans

 

750B

703B

 

 

  EUR

French CPI

 

-0.3%

0.4%

 

 

  EUR

French HICP

 

-0.3%

0.5%

 

 

  EUR

Spanish CPI

 

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  GBP

CPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.2%

0.4%

 

 

  GBP

CPI (YoY) (Sep)

 

1.4%

1.5%

 

 

  GBP

PPI Input (MoM) (Sep)

 

-0.4%

-0.6%

 

 

  EUR

Italian CPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

-0.3%

-0.3%

 

 

  EUR

Industrial Production

 

-1.6%

1.0%

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 14 08:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction

Oct 14 09:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Jan & Oct 2015)

Oct 15 09:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 15 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Sep 2016 Schatz auction

Oct 16 08:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Oct 16 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Oct 16 15:00 US Announces details of 30Y TIPS auction on Oct 23

 

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