Miners Cushion ASX 200 Slide as Weak NAB Confidence and Bearish Renko Signal Downside Risk

ASX 200 heat Map Shows Miners Holding the Line

Miners were positive during the session but were not positive enough to keep the ASX 200 in the green. Banks, tech and healthcare are mostly in the red. The larger positive movers are NEM (+4.37%), RIO (+3.13%), PLS (+3.50%) and NST (+3.23%).

On the other side of the heat map spectrum we have WTC (-5.87%), XRO (-3.52%), RMD (-3.35%) and XYZ (-3.10%). WiseTech looks like tech de-risking rather than idiosyncratic risk, Xero is battling Melio integration costs and SaaS multiples pressure, ResMed is being hit with the broader healthcare weakness despite decent Q3 numbers, and Block looks more like traders taking gains after its recent guidance upgrade.

We also have weaker NAB business confidence which is putting a drag on stocks.

ASX 200 Heat Map Shows Strong Gains in Miners, While Banks, Tech & Healthcare Drag on the Index

ASX 200 sector heat map showing Newmont, Rio Tinto and Pilbara Minerals higher, while WiseTech, Xero, ResMed and Block trade lower

Source: TradingView

NAB Business Confidence Stays Deeply Negative

While it is slightly better than April’s, May’s NAB Business Confidence data point is still deep below zero. This doesn’t look well for the ASX 200 as this could mean softer hiring, weaker capex plans and more cautious profit expectations, particularly for banks, retailers and property names.

Australian Business Confidence Remains Weak in May

Bar Chart Showing NAB Business Confidence falling sharply into negative territory in April and May 2026 after holding near neutral through late 2025 and early 2026.

Source: TradingView

ASX 200 Renko Pullback Now Below 500-SMA

From a Renko perspective the ASX 200 is in a bearish setup right now. The only thing that is saving it really is the Z-Score SMA which is signalling bearish exhaustion. But the Index needs to do alot of climbing before it can return to a bullish setup. The first thing would be to get back above the 500-SMA. Then a positive flip on the Supertrend is needed followed by the RSI getting back above 50. The 50-SMA also needs to trend higher and the Renko bricks need to get back above it. That’s what’s required before we even start to think about the 8,910 level.

15-Brick Renko SHows ASX 200 Back Below 500-SMA

ASX 200 15-Brick Renko Chart showing price below the 50-SMA and 500-SMA, with RSI near 38 and Z-Score negative

Source: TradingView

The Verdict

Current Trend Direction: Bearish

Bias: Negative

Support Levels: 8,255

Resistance Levels: 8,915, 9,230

Medium Term Path: The longer term timeframe is now starting to show in the Renko structure. The ASX 200 is below its long term support. There may be a short term bounce in the Z-Score SMA but alot more is needed to change the current trend direction and bias for the Index. Thus, expectations are for a move lower to the 8,255 support and we need to closely observe the price patterns if or when the Index were to test that level.