Nasdaq 100 and S&P500: Retail Weakness and Chip Stock Selloff Drive Volatility

Stocks Flat as Traders Brace for Fed Minutes and Parse Retail Earnings

Major indexes held steady Wednesday, shortly after the opening, as investors assessed a mixed round of retail earnings while positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes.

The Dow rose 69 points, or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.1% and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Retail stocks took the spotlight, with Target dragging on sentiment, while attention turned toward upcoming commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Is the Federal Reserve Still on Track for a Rate Cut?

Investors are closely watching the July Fed minutes, set for release at 18:00 GMT. The central bank kept rates steady at that meeting, but two dissents—by Governors Waller and Bowman—raised eyebrows. It marked the first dual dissent on rates since 1993, signaling internal tension over policy direction.

Traders remain confident about easing, with CME FedWatch showing an 85% probability of a rate cut in September. Markets will be tuned in to Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks on Friday for any signals confirming that outlook.

Retail Earnings Paint a Mixed Picture—Who’s Leading and Who’s Lagging?

Target shares plunged more than 10% after another sales decline and news of a leadership change. Comparable sales dropped 1.9%, with transactions and basket sizes also slipping. In contrast, Lowe’s gained 2.9% after beating EPS expectations with $4.33 per share and announcing an $8.8 billion acquisition of Foundation Building Materials to strengthen its pro business. TJX surged 4.5% after posting better-than-expected results, buoyed by strong discount retail demand.

Semiconductors Under Pressure on CHIPS Act Equity Concerns

Chip stocks took a hit following a Reuters report that the U.S. may take equity stakes in firms receiving CHIPS Act funds. Micron fell 3%, while Intel, TSMC, and AMD slipped roughly 1%. Despite Analog Devices rising 3% on solid results and raised guidance, the sector was dragged down by policy uncertainty. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) dipped 0.2%.

Hertz Spikes on Amazon Partnership

Hertz shares rallied 9.5% after revealing a new partnership with Amazon Autos, allowing customers to purchase pre-owned vehicles online. The collaboration is expected to expand Hertz’s retail reach and boost its used car segment.

Market Outlook: All Eyes on Powell’s Friday Remarks

With equities largely holding the line, traders remain cautious ahead of Powell’s Friday comments at Jackson Hole. Confirmation of dovish intent could solidify rate-cut bets for September. However, internal Fed divisions and policy risks tied to semiconductor funding suggest that volatility may return quickly. Traders should watch bond yields and retail sector commentary for short-term direction.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.