Nasdaq Sets Fresh High as Traders Brace for Packed Week of Fed, Earnings, and Inflation Data
The Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3% Monday, reaching a new record high, as traders reacted cautiously to a new U.S.-EU trade agreement and positioned ahead of a data-heavy week.
The S&P 500 edged up just 0.08%, briefly hitting a fresh intraday high, while the Dow Jones hovered near the flatline.
Market enthusiasm was tempered by a crowded calendar featuring Federal Reserve policy, earnings from tech giants, and key labor and inflation reports.
Will Federal Reserve Signals Move Markets Midweek?
The Fed kicks off a two-day policy meeting Tuesday, with its decision due Wednesday. The benchmark interest rate is widely expected to remain in the 4.25%-4.5% range, but traders will be watching for signals of a possible rate cut in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference is expected to draw heavy scrutiny, especially as inflation expectations remain mixed heading into Thursday’s PCE report.
The June core PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is forecast to hold at 2.7% year-over-year, with headline inflation ticking up to 2.5%. Markets will interpret any uptick as reason for the Fed to stay cautious on easing, especially with tariffs and trade uncertainty still a concern.
Nasdaq Gains Fueled by Strong Tech Names
Tech was the session’s top-performing sector, gaining 0.41%, supported by anticipation around earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon.
Chipmakers led the rally: Advanced Micro Devices jumped 4.1%, Tesla gained 3.8%, and KLA rose 2.9%. Other notable Nasdaq movers included ASML (+2.6%), Shopify (+2.4%), and Applied Materials (+2.2%).
NASDAQ 100 Price Forecast
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See all NASDAQ 100 forecastsSemiconductors broadly outperformed as investors rotated back into AI-related names ahead of commentary on hyperscale infrastructure investments. ON Semiconductor, Texas Instruments, and Microchip Technology all posted solid gains.
Energy, Consumer Discretionary Lead Sector Moves
Energy rose 1.09%, driven by gains in Diamondback Energy (+2.7%) and broader oil sentiment following the U.S.-EU trade pact. Consumer Discretionary also advanced 1.09% as Tesla surged. In contrast, defensive sectors lagged, with Consumer Staples (-0.48%), Utilities (-0.76%), and Real Estate (-0.49%) under pressure. Materials fell the most, down 1.12%.
Charter Communications, T-Mobile, and Gilead were among the session’s worst performers, each falling over 2%. Cisco and Synopsys also slipped, reflecting cautious positioning in certain tech subgroups.
What’s the Market Outlook as Jobs, Inflation, and Earnings Hit?
With more than 150 S&P 500 companies reporting this week, traders are bracing for volatility. Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon Thursday, could sway the broader indexes.
Key data points include Wednesday’s Q2 GDP print (expected +2.3%) and Friday’s jobs report, projected to show a slowdown to 102,000 payroll additions and a slight uptick in unemployment to 4.2%.
Traders should expect headline risk and potential rate cut recalibration based on inflation and labor trends. Until clarity emerges from Powell and big tech, range-bound moves may dominate.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
