Nasdaq 100 and S&P500: US Indices Set Up for Volatile Moves Today on NFP Analysis Watch

Stock Futures Edge Higher as Traders Brace for NFP

March E-mini stock futures contracts are inching higher shortly before Wednesday’s cash market opening as traders position themselves ahead of the delayed January Non-Farm Payrolls report at 13:30 GMT.

At 11:53 GMT, E-mini Dow futures are trading 50334.00, up 61.00 or +0.12%. E-mini S&P futures are at 6968.00, up 6.50 or +0.09%, and E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures are trading 25227.75, up 9.50 or +0.04%.

NFP Consensus: 55K Jobs, But Revisions Could Tell the Real Story

A consensus of analysts is calling for a gain of just 55,000 jobs, barely above December’s 50,000. Unemployment is expected to hit 4.4%. But the real story could be the revisions, which may reveal a much weaker labor market than previously reported throughout 2024 and 2025.

Tuesday’s regular session saw mixed action. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% as AI concerns hit financial services stocks. The Nasdaq fell 0.6%. The Dow managed a 0.1% gain, notching another all-time high.

Premarket Movers: Mattel Collapses 28%, Cloudflare Surges 15%

Overnight, the biggest movers include Mattel (-28% on weak guidance), Lyft (-17% on soft EBITDA outlook), and Cloudflare (+15% on strong revenue guidance). Robinhood dropped 7% after missing revenue estimates, while Lattice Semiconductor jumped 12% on upbeat first-quarter guidance.

Traders are on edge ahead of today’s cash market session. Weak retail sales data yesterday showed consumer spending flat in December. If NFP comes in soft and revisions slash 2025’s job gains, the Fed’s June rate cut becomes a lock—and March comes into play.

S&P 500: Holding 50-Day MA Sets Up Bullish Drive

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are edging higher early Wednesday while holding on the strong side of the 50-day moving average at 6937.96 and a short-term retracement zone at 6931.75 to 6897.25.

Holding above these support levels could set the tone for a bullish drive through the minor top at 7006.50 and the main top at 7027.25. The record high is 7043.00.

A sustained break under the 50-day MA will be a sign of weakness, while a break under the 50% level at 6897.25 could trigger an acceleration to the downside.

Nasdaq Faces Critical Test at 25310 Downtrend Line

The E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures contract looks promising for a rally, but the market is still facing headwinds at a long-term downtrend line at 25310.00. Overcoming this will be the first step in reestablishing the uptrend. The next level to overcome is the long-term 50% level at 25411.75. This could be the trigger point for an acceleration into the 50-day moving average at 25640.25.

There are still some risks. If sellers continue to defend the downtrend line, then support could fail, fueling a steep break into the short-term pivot at 24843.50.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.